Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 5/15/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Gunnar Henderson
• Ketel Marte
• Rafael Devers

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Orioles at Nationals, 6:46 p.m. ET

It's rivalry weekend in baseball, and I'm into Gunnar Henderson for his matchup against Zack Littell and the Washington Nationals.

Littell is having a rough 2026 campaign, struggling to a 5.49 SIERA and 10.1% K rate. He's allowed an eye-popping 3.47 homers per nine innings. There aren't many better matchups out there.

On top of that, once Littell is out of the game, he'll hand the keys to a Nats bullpen that ranks third-worst in reliever xFIP.

Henderson took a step back last year and is off to an even worse start so far this season, producing a .285 wOBA with a career-worst 28.8% strikeout rate. But he's in his preferred split versus Littell as he's posted a 41.9% fly-ball rate versus RHPs this year, and Henderson is too talented to be putting up these kind of numbers. He's going to pick it up at some point, and I really like today's matchup for him.

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+260)

Diamondbacks at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

This is a smash spot for Ketel Marte.

Marte has a long track record of hammering left-handers, and today, he's at Coors against Kyle Freeland. Yes, please.

Marte put up a .377 wOBA against LHPs a season ago, and while his overall .285 wOBA this year is an eyesore, it's mostly a mirage as his expected wOBA is .345. His hard-hit rate of 43.8% is actually a career-best mark, so he's doing just fine.

Freeland looks like an improved hurler early on this year, with an 11.5% swinging-strike rate and 3.89 SIERA. But it's still early, and this is a southpaw who had a 4.73 SIERA and 16.2% K rate from 2023-2025. Plus, the game is in Coors.

Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+270)

Giants at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

With Tyler Mahle and Aaron Civale squaring off at homer-happy Sutter Health Park, we could see a few dingers today when the San Francisco Giants take on the A's. Rafael Devers is my favorite HR pick in the game.

Devers' numbers have taken a nosedive since he came to the Bay. His wOBA this year is a lowly .300. This is a guy who generated wOBAs of .364 and .365 in 2024 and 2025. He's been one of the game's elite left-handed hitters for a while, and he's going to figure it out eventually.

He gets a huge park-factor boost in Sacramento, and Civale is a friendly matchup. The A's RHP owns a 4.54 SIERA and 7.7% swinging-strike rate. He's given up a .375 wOBA at home this year while lefty bats have tagged him for a .350 wOBA and 44.7% fly-ball rate.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.