French Open Third Round Betting Picks: Saturday 6/1/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
French Open Third Round Betting Picks: Saturday 6/1/24

The tennis clay season concludes with the French Open -- otherwise known as Roland-Garros -- bringing us the second Grand Slam of 2024.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the French Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which third-round matches could have the most betting value on Saturday.

French Open Best Bets

Madison Keys vs. Emma Navarro

Keys 2-0 Sets (+145)

Madison Keys had a weird second-round match against Mayar Sherif, opening with a 6-0 bagel set but then following it up with a nail-biting tiebreak, but she nonetheless got the job done in straight sets. She's now won six matches in a row without dropping a set, and we're hoping for more of the same on Saturday against fellow American Emma Navarro.

As the world No. 24, Navarro is no slouch, but she's had an unremarkable clay season, with most of her success coming against weaker opponents in WTA 125 events while struggling to make any noise at bigger events in Madrid and Rome. Overall, she's 11-6 on the surface this year but is just 3-5 versus players ranked inside the top 100.

Meanwhile, Keys is 13-3 on clay, with two of her losses coming against Iga Swiatek while the other was her very first 2024 clay match at the start of April. Given the difference in recent form, it isn't surprising to see Massey Ratings' model firmly behind Keys with an 83% win probability.

It sure feels like Keys should be better than a -172 favorite (63.2% implied win odds), so I like the value we're getting for her to win in straight sets again.

Taylor Fritz vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis

Fritz 3-0 Sets (+120)

Although Taylor Fritz came into Roland-Garros off a surprising loss to Alex Michelsen in Geneva, he's otherwise had a strong clay swing and is up to a 12-5 record on the surface after notching wins in the first two rounds. Strong runs in Munich (finalist), Madrid (semifinalist), and Rome (quarterfinalist) are all promising signs that he's ready to make it past the third round of the French Open for the first time -- something he's already accomplished at the three other majors.

He's certainly up against the right opponent to do so. Thanasi Kokkinakis has never performed well on clay -- he came into Paris with a 31.8% career clay win rate -- and he's spent the majority of this swing in Challenger tournaments or qualifying, leaving him few matches against upper-tier opponents. Kokkinakis entered the event 0-3 in ATP-level clay marches and 4-9 overall.

Additionally, Kokkiakis has needed to go five sets in each of the first two French Open rounds despite facing a pair of players ranked 51st and 148th. He's already logged over eight hours of total court time. The Australian has also never advanced past the third round of any Grand Slam.

Massey Ratings gives Fritz a 78% chance of winning, and his implied win probability is even higher as a -600 favorite (85.7%). Similar to the previous matchup, the plus odds are appealing for the American to take this one in three sets.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.