Tennis

French Open Second Round Betting Picks: Thursday 5/30/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
French Open Second Round Betting Picks: Thursday 5/30/24

The tennis clay season concludes with the French Open -- otherwise known as Roland-Garros -- bringing us the second Grand Slam of 2024.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the French Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which second-round matches could have the most betting value on Thursday. Note that due to rain, several of Wednesday's matches have been pushed to Thursday's schedule, including the two featured in our last betting piece.

Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev 3-0 Sets (+160)

Daniil Medvedev doesn't have the best history at Roland-Garros -- he was bounced in the first round in 2023 -- but he's improved his play on clay in recent seasons and went as far as the quarterfinals in 2021. Perhaps the most notable turning point for him was when he won a clay Masters 1000 last season (Rome), which is the only one of his 20 singles titles to come on the surface.

While Medvedev is still looking for his first title of 2024, he's otherwise performed well this year, amassing a 25-7 record and finishing runner-up at the Australian Open and Indian Wells. He's a solid 7-3 on clay courts, too, with all three losses coming against players now ranked in the top 25.

On the other hand, Miomir Kecmanovic is ranked outside the top 50 and has a losing record this year (13-14). In his clay matches, he's gone 6-6, practically alternating wins and losses over the last few months. Even if Medvedev is destined for a disappointing exit in Paris, Kecmanovic doesn't look like the man to do it.

A quick glance at their head-to-head should further give us confidence. Not only is Miomir 0-3 against Medvedev, but he's never won a single set. That includes a clay match in 2022, which just so happened to come at that year's French Open.

Massey Ratings is fully behind Medvedev, projecting a 90% win probability over Kecmanovic. Although Medvedev went four sets against Dominik Koepfer in the last round -- another lesser opponent who's never beaten Daniil -- the Russian otherwise cruised outside of one close set, winning 6-3, 6-4, 5-7, 6-3. At these very appealing odds for a straight-sets win, I'm willing to take the chance that Medvedev shuts the door in three this time and continues his dominance over Kecmanovic.

Madison Keys vs. Mayar Sherif

Under 20.5 Total Games (-112)

Madison Keys comes into this event in great form, most recently winning a title at Strasbourg without losing a set. Including her first-round win on Tuesday, Keys is now 12-3 on clay this season, and two of those losses came against the near-invincible Iga Swiatek.

The American's strong play has resulted in her entering the French Open with Tennis Abstract's ninth-best Elo rating and seventh-best clay-specific rating. After winning her opening match in straight sets, that means she's now won five straight matches without dropping a set, and one of those victories came against the red-hot Danielle Collins, who has lost just 3 times over her last 26 matches.

Mayar Sherif doesn't appear to be the player to slow Keys down. Outside of a handful of early-season matches on hard courts, Sherif has played almost entirely on clay this season, which has historically been her best surface. Yet she's still just 16-10 this year, and nearly all her success has come in lower-tier tournaments. Against top-50 players on clay, she's gone just 4-4 -- and Keys is the world No. 12.

Massey Ratings doesn't give Sherif much of a chance in this one, projecting a Keys win 86% of the time. Given that Keys is a -420 moneyline favorite and has -145 odds to win in straight sets, picking the under for total match games is looking like the best value play. During Keys' five-match streak without dropping a set, the total games have come under 20.5 in all of them.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.