FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Helper: Saturday 8/10/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

It's once again Paul Skenes ($10,800) Day, and Skenes comes at a bit of a discount thanks to a matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers. I'm not sure it's warranted. L.A.'s 117 wRC+ against righties in the past 30 days is solid, but they're also tied for the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.7%) in these same parameters. If there's anyone whose earned the benefit of the doubt, it's Skenes' 2.59 expected ERA (xERA) and 32.3% K rate.

Corbin Burnes ($10,600) is right there as a secondary option. The Tampa Bay Rays have stumbled to a bottom-10 team OPS (.684) and strikeout rate (26.0%) against righties in the past 30 days as they sold hard at the trade deadline. Burnes' own upside for whiffs (28.7% rate) isn't quite as high, but you could absolutely peg his matchup as "safer".

There are plenty of aces behind them, so the odds all come up short are pretty small. With that said, Logan Gilbert ($10,400) probably takes bronze as the visiting New York Mets have had an elevated K rate against right-handers over the past 30 days (24.7%). They're a tough offense, but T-Mobile Park is also one of baseball's best pitching environment. In a world where Skenes and Burnes didn't exist, I'd be okay turning to his excellent 3.23 xERA in this space.

Max Fried ($9,700) is at Coors Field balancing the double-edged sword of the pitiful Colorado Rockies (league-worst 61 wRC+ vs. LHP in the past month) with their ballpark. Justin Steele ($9,500) draws the pathetic Chicago White Sox as quietly one of baseball's most effective hurlers (2.97 xERA), but the extreme winds blowing out at Guaranteed Rate Field make for a suboptimal spot for him, too.

I still wouldn't be surprised if either came through at value salaries, setting today's pitching up with several quality options in tournaments.

Stacks to Target

• Atlanta Braves (5.96 implied team total)
  • I've largely tried to avoid stacking against sinkerballer Dakota Hudson (52.4% groundball rate), but the righty makes too many of his own issues with a 42.4% hard-hit rate allowed and 11.8% BB rate at Coors. Atlanta's in an excellent spot when also facing the maligned Colorado Rockies bullpen (4.07 xFIP in last 30 days) when Hudson departs.
• Chicago Cubs (5.31)
  • Writing up their team total as a bet, I love the Cubs today. Chris Flexen has surrendered 1.66 HR/9 this season with massive flyball (46.7%) and hard-hit (37.4%) rates allowed. Chicago's topped six runs in four of their last five, coinciding with Cody Bellinger's recent return from the IL. It doesn't get much worse than the Chicago White Sox bullpen, either.
• Philadelphia Phillies (4.18)
  • Beyond the first two, team totals drop across the board. This 9.0-run total in Arizona should merit some sort of offense, and I'll take a swipe at the reeling Phils. Zac Gallen's 3.75 ERA is showing a worse 4.09 xERA with a poor .257 expected BA allowed and 43.4% hard-hit rate allowed. Surprisingly, he's one of the weaker pitchers on the slate.
• Cleveland Guardians (4.17)
  • Simeon Woods Richardson could be a popular choice as a value plug because of Cleveland's 70 wRC+ against righties in the past 30 days, but I'm inclined to fade his 4.09 xERA, 41.4% flyball rate, and 35.3% hard-hit rate allowed. Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor are the only two on the club with an .800 OPS or better in this split over the past month; a mini-stack is the best course of action.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.