FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Wednesday 2/14/24

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Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Wednesday's main slate on FanDuel features a staggering 13 games, so it's important to narrow down the advantageous game environments.

For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map. Lines and totals via the NBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top matchups:

Other games:

Guards

Top Plays

James Harden ($8,800) -- No Kawhi Leonard (out) for the Clippers tonight. According to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, James Harden led the way in Kawhi's four prior DNPs, averaging 45.2 FanDuel points (FPs) per game via a 25% usage rate. Though Harden has been held under 40 FPs in each of his last three outings, a strong game environment and palatable salary make him my favorite guard tonight. It helps that the matchup is good, too. Per FantasyPros, Golden State has given up the eighth-most FPs to opposing PGs.

Immanuel Quickley ($7,200) -- It's been a rough stretch for Immanuel Quickley, exceeding 30 FPs just once in his last five games. He's made only 38% of his shots in that span and is averaging a measly combined 6.6 rebounds plus assists. Still, I'm bullish he bounces back tonight. He's playing in the slate's top game environment against an Indiana defense that's allowed the eighth-most FPs to PGs over the last 15 games. Quickley's points + assists prop is set at 24.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Reggie Jackson ($5,400) -- Jamal Murray is out tonight, making Reggie Jackson a clear value at PG. In 14 games without Murray, Jackson has averaged 30.1 FPs and posted a 22% usage rate. One of those games came versus these very Kings, against whom Jackson went for 20 points, 8 assists, and 34.2 FPs. Sacramento is a neutral matchup for guards, but they're playing in the second leg of a back-to-back and have dipped to 24th in defensive rating over their last 15 games.

Others to Consider

Tyrese Haliburton ($9,200) -- Don't tell Tyrese Haliburton's salary, but he played 34 minutes the last time out -- the most run he's gotten since returning from injury. This is the same guy who carried an $11.5K salary as recently as January 6th, so he could be the rare high-salary value in tonight's bout with Toronto. The Raptors have given up the fifth-most assists to PGs over their last 15 games, and Haliburton dropped 16 dimes when these two squads faced off in November.

Jaden Ivey ($7,400) -- Jaden Ivey has cooled off in recent games, but he has a great matchup with Phoenix -- a defense that's allowed the third-most FPs to PGs over their last 15 games. I'm skeptical Cade Cunningham plays in the second leg of Detroit's back-to-back, and Ivey has averaged 37.3 FPs with him out of the lineup.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,400) -- It was a solid, albeit quiet, Laker debut for Spencer Dinwiddie last night as the journeyman totaled 20.9 FPs in 31 minutes of action. The minutes were highly encouraging, and he could get a bump with LeBron James out tonight. Utah's allowed the most FPs to PGs over their last 15 games, and, as of Wednesday afternoon, Dinwiddie's 33-FP projection makes him the top point-per-dollar value among guards.

Wings

Top Plays

Brandon Ingram ($8,300) -- There are a lot of high-salary forwards to choose from, but I prefer to dip down to Brandon Ingram at $8.3K. Ingram's been held under 40 FPs in three of his last four, but he's just five games removed from a 64.7-FP outburst. A date with Washington today puts that kind of ceiling back on the table. The Wizards are 27th in defensive rating, first in pace, and have allowed the most FPs to SFs this season. Even with a lopsided spread, there's a lot to like here.

Buddy Hield ($7,100) -- Listen, Buddy Hield isn't going to shoot 52% forever, but the usage could be here to stay in Philly (for the time being). Hield has averaged 37 minutes per game as a Sixer, putting up 31.8, 48.0, and 40.8 FPs through three games. We know Hield can let it rip from deep, but his playmaking has really unlocked his fantasy potential. He'd totaled six assists just three times as a Pacer and has already matched that in three games with Philly. His assists prop is set at 4.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Grayson Allen ($5,700) and Eric Gordon ($5,000) -- Bradley Beal left last night's contest after just four minutes, and he'll miss tonight's game. Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon both exceeded 30 FPs in his absence, just as they have all season. In 23 games without Beal, Gordon has averaged 25.2 FPPG, with Allen right behind him at 24.5. Detroit bleeds fantasy production to every position, and they're 29th in defensive rating this year. Both of these guys could thrive given Phoenix's 124.5 implied total.

Others to Consider

Jayson Tatum ($10,300) -- Jayson Tatum exploded for 72.3 FPs last night, and he'll face the same Brooklyn defense tonight, this time at home. While Tatum likely won't replicate last night's performance, Brooklyn has given up the fifth-most FPs to SFs this season, so it's not out of the question. My only worry is that Tatum could ride the pine early; Boston is a double-digit favorite, and this is their last game before the All-Star break.

Aaron Nesmith ($6,300) -- Aaron Nesmith continues to handle 30-plus minutes a night as Indiana's starting SF. That bodes well for his prospects tonight considering the Raptors have given up the most FPs to SFs over their last 15 games. They're 26th in defensive rating over that span, and this is the slate's premier game environment. Nesmith is in a good spot.

Rui Hachimura ($5,400) and Taurean Prince ($4,900) -- No LeBron for the Lakers means we can throw a dart at either Rui Hachimura or Taurean Prince. James has missed six games this season. In those six, Hachimura has averaged 26.7 FPs and Prince has put up an average of 24.8 FPs. Hachimura's 21% usage rate in those contests was noticeably higher than Prince's 14% mark, but they could both thrive against a Jazz defense that's bottom-two in FPs allowed to both forward positions.

Royce O'Neale ($4,100) -- Royce O'Neale has quickly found a role in Phoenix, totaling 36.3 FPs across 29 minutes last night. He could see even more run today with Beal sidelined and projects well against a Detroit D that's bottom 10 in FPs allowed to both forward spots. O'Neale's 26.2-FP projection makes him the top point-per-dollar value among wings and the second-best overall.

Bigs

Top Plays

Nikola Jokic ($12,000) -- Nikola Jokic is my No. 1 play tonight, even if he does lock you out of some interesting centers. Jokic has gone for 50 FPs in 13 of his last 14 games, though he's failed to reach 60 FPs in four straight. That leads me to believe a ceiling game is on the horizon, especially with Jamal Murray out. Jokic has feasted with Murray sidelined this season, averaging 64.6 FPs via a 34% usage rate. He exploded for 81.6 FPs in an earlier matchup with Sacramento, and his points + rebounds + assists prop is way up at 50.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Evan Mobley ($7,700) -- It's time to get back on the Evan Mobley train. Mobley has settled between 25 and 27 minutes over the last five games, but that hasn't stopped him from notching a pair of 47-FP outings. There's 50-FP upside tonight as the Bulls have given up the third-most FPs to PFs over the last 15 games. Mobley could also get a bump from Darius Garland (questionable) potentially sitting. He's averaged 41 FPs with Garland out of the lineup this season.

De'Andre Hunter ($5,100) -- I like all the PF-eligible players in this Hornets-Hawks clash, but De'Andre Hunter is my favorite given the salary. Atlanta unleashed Hunter for 28 minutes in their most recent outing, and he responded with 23 points and 37.2 FPs. Charlotte has given up the fifth-most FPs to PFs on the year, and Hunter could see a bump with both Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu out.

Others to Consider

Victor Wembanyama ($10,400) -- Victor Wembanyama flashed his slate-winning upside with an 80.3-FP triple-double in San Antonio's previous outing, but he'd failed to reach 30 FPs in each of the prior two games. There's a wide range of outcomes for a player this young, but the matchup is ripe for the taking tonight. Dallas has given up the fourth-most FPs to PFs, and this game has the slate's second-highest total (242.0).

Daniel Gafford ($7,100) -- Daniel Gafford's first two games in Dallas couldn't have gone better. He went for 32.8 FPs over 17 minutes in his debut and followed that up with 58.4 FPs on Monday night. Gafford went for 16 rebounds and 13 assists in an earlier matchup with San Antonio, so he's primed to take advantage of their soft interior if Dereck Lively is out again. Over their last 15 games, the Spurs have given up the fifth-most FPs to Cs.

Grant Williams ($5,100) -- Safe to say that Grant Williams has enjoyed playing with his new team. He's seen 32 and 31 minutes in two games with Charlotte, racking up 24.1 and 31.3 FPs. That puts him in a nice spot to take advantage of a porous Atlanta interior. The Hawks have given up the fourth-most FPs to PFs over their last 15 games, and Atlanta is down both bigs tonight.

Bruno Fernando ($4,000) -- Bruno Fernando is going to be an extremely popular salary saver with Capela and Okongwu sidelined. He has yet to start a game this but went for 25.0 and 27.1 FPs the two times he exceeded 15 minutes. I'm not sold Atlanta gives him starter's minutes, but he's projected for 29 minutes and 33 FPs. From a point-per-dollar standpoint, he's by far the top value on the slate. Charlotte yielding the third-most FPs to centers makes him even more appealing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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