NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 5/13/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 5/13/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.

NBA DFS Picks

Monday's main slate on FanDuel features two games. For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map.

Guards

Top Plays

Donovan Mitchell ($9,600) -- Donovan Mitchell hasn't exceeded 51 FanDuel points (FPs) this round, but he's notched at least 47 FPs in all three games. He's averaging 31.7 real-world points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game this series and is fresh off a 7-for-12 night from three. Another home date with the Celts bodes well for Spida even though he is questionable. I'd be surprised if he sat, but that would funnel more usage to Darius Garland ($6,000) and Caris LeVert ($5,000).

Kyrie Irving ($8,300) -- Kyrie Irving is a ticking time bomb. He's been held under 41 FPs in each of the first three games with OKC but notably reached 48 three times in the first round. We know what Kyrie can do at this point, so I'm extremely interested in getting him at a discount coming off a 10-for-17 shooting performance in Game 3. I much prefer Irving to Luka Doncic ($11,600) given the salaries.

Derrick White ($6,300) -- Derrick White is another guy whose services we're getting at a discount tonight, but he's certainly struggled this series. White's been held under 26 FPs in two straight games and is shooting just 40% overall for the series. His floor leaves something to be desired as Boston's third option, yet the upside is there. We project him for 32.3 FPs, making him the top point-per-dollar value at SG (5.13 FPs per $1,000).

Others to Consider

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,900) -- Now this is the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander we've been waiting for! After a good-not-great Round 1, SGA has exploded for 63.9 FPPG in the first three games against Dallas. There's a chance OKC will try to spread things out more down 2-1, but it's hard to argue against SGA as the slate's top guard considering salary. His 54.8-FP projection is second only to Luka Doncic's 58.4.

Payton Pritchard ($3,900) -- Another Celtics-Cavs matchup, another day of Payton Pritchard being a value. Pritchard had his worst game of the series in Game 3, but he still played 22 minutes. In three games this series, Pritchard is averaging 22 minutes, 11.3 real-world points, and 20.5 FPPG. While I don't like him as much on the road, Pritchard is certainly appealing in star-heavy lineups.

Wings

Top Plays

Jayson Tatum ($9,900) -- Jayson Tatum finally lived him to his position-leading salary in Game 3. He finished with 33 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, and a pair of stocks (steals plus blocks) en route to 58.6 FPs. Tatum continues to dominate the glass, grabbing double-digit boards in six of eight playoff games and averaging 10.4 per game for the postseason. His rebounds prop is set at 9.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, and he's in a tier of his own at SF. We project him for 49.2 FPs, 9.0 more than the next-closest SF.

Jalen Williams ($7,500) -- Dallas has held Jalen Williams in check thus far with the wing notching just 33.5, 35.8, and 35.2 FPs through three games. We saw him start slow in the first two games of the first round, too, so I'm still optimistic J-Dub can climb past 40 FPs with his team down 2-1. He notably attempted just 12 shots last time out but did rack up a playoff-high 8 assists.

Luguentz Dort ($4,700) -- There's not an especially high ceiling with Luguentz Dort, but he's averaging 34.3 minutes per game this postseason and has exceeded 20 FPs two games in a row. He's done an admirable job on Luka this series, so we can expect his high minutes load to continue going forward. He's a sound-floor salary-saver, a valuable archetype on such a star-studded slate.

Others to Consider

Jaylen Brown ($8,000) -- I'm more than willing to fade Tatum in favor of Jaylen Brown if you're stocking up on high-salaried guards. Brown can be an inconsistent fantasy performer at times, but he's registered 44 FPs in four of eight games this postseason, so we know there's a ceiling at least. On top of that, Boston played him for 40 minutes in Game 3 -- his most in the playoffs.

Derrick Jones ($4,000) -- Derrick Jones Jr. has failed to crack 20 FPS four games in a row, but I'm still holding out hope tonight. He saw 36 minutes in Game 3, finishing with 13.3 FPs thanks to an abysmal 1-for-10 shooting performance. That comes on the heels of a 3-for-12 outing in Game 2, but the volume is encouraging at the very least. We project him for 20.9 FPs, making him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate regardless of position (5.21 FPs per $1,000).

Bigs

Top Plays

Chet Holmgren ($7,600) -- Chet Holmgren bounced back to put up 41.1 FPs last time out, yet his salary on FanDuel dipped to its lowest mark since early April. Holmgren has recorded more than 40 FPs in four of seven games this postseason but fewer than 30 in the other three. There's a wide range of outcomes here, but there's no denying his upside at $7.6K. He's our top projected big tonight,with our model projecting him for 39.4 FPs. That makes him the second-best point-per-dollar value on the entire slate (5.19 FPs per $1,000).

PJ Washington ($6,900) -- After a 19.2-FP effort in Game 1, PJ Washington has exploded for 55.2 and 37.2 FPs the last two games. He's scored 29 and 27 real-world points over that span, shooting 12-for-23 from three. This has been Washington's most prolific two-game shooting stretch of the season, so some regression wouldn't be surprising someone shot just 32% from three during the regular season. Still, this amount of volume doesn't grow on trees -- especially for players with a $6.9K salary.

Al Horford ($5,500) -- That's back-to-back duds for Al Horford as the 37-year-old has been held under 20 FPs two games running. His salary hasn't changed much as a result, but there is still reason to believe in a bounce-back tonight. Al played 39 minutes in Game 3, but he failed to record a defensive statistic and went 0-for-6 from beyond the arc. Horford is now shooting 30.3% from three in the playoffs after finishing with a 41.9% mark in the regular season. Those shots will fall eventually, and we know the playing time is there. Horford's made threes prop is set at 1.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Others to Consider

Evan Mobley ($8,200) -- Evan Mobley struggled in Game 3, finishing with just 28.1 FPs after going for 39.1 and 49.5 in the first two games of the series. Still, he played 37 minutes, racking up 17 points and 8 rebounds. Boston is still undermanned down low, so there's plenty of reasons to get excited about Mobley on such a shallow big man slate.

Dereck Lively ($4,100) -- Through nine playoff games, Dereck Lively is averaging 20.2 minutes and 18.6 FPPG. He's exceeded 20 FPs five times and played 27 minutes the last time out. His counterpart, Daniel Gafford ($6,200) is averaging 20.3 minutes and 19.9 FPPG. Gafford has flashed more upside with a 44.7-FP series opener this round but still has the same number of 20-FP games as Lively. Gafford also was limited to 20 minutes and had to go to the locker room with a shoulder injury in Game 3. The salary discrepancy is far too wide for two players with similar workloads. Lively's a strong salary-saver in non-Chet lineups, especially paired with either Luka or Kyrie.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.