FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 8/31/23

We have one of those Thursdays where most of MLB's teams are off, leaving us with just a three-game main slate. Further complicating matters is the fact that none of the night's top pitchers have ideal matchups.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Even as his salary creeps ever so higher, Spencer Strider ($12,000) is just about always at or near the top of our wishlist when he takes the mound. And while the combination of this massive cap hit and a date with the Los Angeles Dodgers might normally give us some pause on a larger slate, it's simply hard to get excited about any other pitcher tonight.

Against right-handed pitching, the Dodgers' active roster comes in with a 111 wRC+, .173 ISO, and 20.7% strikeout rate -- all marks we would happily avoid with most pitchers.

But, as we know, Strider is no ordinary arm. Among qualified starters, his 38.1% strikeout rate is more than six percentage points higher than the next-highest arm. Compared to tonight's expected pitchers, his advantage will be 12-plus percentage points higher than the others we'll be considering.

That dominance has led to Strider recording at least nine Ks in 10 of his last 12 starts.

The Dodgers are a formidable opponent, but against the likes of Strider, even LA is showing a middling implied team total (4.02).

After Strider, we're pretty much left to choose between Lance Lynn ($9,500) and Braxton Garrett ($8,700).

Lynn has the most strikeout potential on the slate behind Strider despite a brutal spot against the mighty Atlanta Braves. The right-hander has a 25.8% strikeout rate this season, and even with all his home-run woes, we've seen him pop off for 10 or more punchouts four times this year.

However, since joining the Dodgers, he's adjusted his pitch mix, and while that might have contributed to his better results, it's also led to his strikeout rate dropping to 21.0%. Most notably, we've seen his strikeout rate versus lefties go from 23.0% to 15.2%

Still, his strikeout rate in same-handed matchups is 30.1% for the season and 27.6% since joining Los Angeles, and he should face his fair share of righties tonight.

Of course, regardless of what Lynn's throwing, the biggest fear is his opponent. Atlanta's active roster boasts a .218 ISO and 20.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, and for someone who's struggled with home runs all year, that's all sorts of bad news.

For Garrett, his matchup against the Washington Nationals might be a bad one for strikeouts, but he's less likely to get blown up than Lynn is.

Washington's active roster has an upside-suppressing 17.6% strikeout rate when facing lefties, and they've actually been an above-average offense in the split overall. But their .157 ISO won't scare anyone, and that's reflected by their 3.79 implied team total.

The Nats will roll out a lineup almost entirely of righties, too, so I'm not envisioning a ceiling game from Garrett by any means. But the southpaw still manages a very respectable 3.36 xFIP, 23.2% strikeout rate, 3.1% walk rate, and 49.0% ground-ball rate against right-handed bats, so a solid outing is absolutely possible.

Garrett did just face Washington last week, and while it didn't move the needle from a DFS standpoint, he did notch a quality start. The familiarity won't help, but beggars can't be choosers on this slate.

At the end of the day, it feels like getting up to Strider is the best strategy, and then it's a matter of picking your poison between Lynn and Garrett in lineups that need more hitting salary.

Hitting Breakdown

The Braves and Dodgers are clearly the best offenses on the board and have been two of our favorite stacks all year. But if given the choice between attacking Spencer Strider or Lance Lynn, it's a no-brainer.

Lynn's generally had positive starts since joining the Dodgers, but it's easy to remain skeptical that he's actually changed for the better.

He's still coughed up six dingers in five games, and his 4.24 xFIP with LA is actually higher than his xFIP was with the Chicago White Sox (4.04). Despite a vastly improved ERA versus lefties, the lower strikeout rate should give us pause, and his 4.59 xFIP in the split since the trade is only a marginal improvement from before (4.76).

Lynn hasn't allowed as much hard contact with L.A., and maybe that has some legs. But we shouldn't worried about that sort of thing against one of the league's most powerful lineups.

Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4,900) is always a headliner, but attacking Lynn with lefties remains the ideal way to take advantage. Matt Olson ($4,400) and Ozzie Albies ($4,000) are top priorities, and then Eddie Rosario ($2,900) and Michael Harris II ($3,200) are guys who won't break the bank.

The Miami Marlins aren't a team we often look to for offense, but they have a slate-best 4.71 implied team total versus right-hander Joan Adon.

Adon's been mediocre in both Triple-A and MLB this season, posting an xFIP above 4.60 and a strikeout rate around 20% at both levels. Over 94 career big league innings, he's shown the ability to get grounders versus righties but otherwise has little that differentiates his lefty-righty splits.

Due to their low salaries, Miami could be a popular team to stack in Strider lineups. Jorge Soler ($3,300) leads the team with 35 dingers, and then Jazz Chisholm ($3,000), Luis Arraez ($2,900), Josh Bell ($2,800), and Jesus Sanchez ($2,400) will all have the platoon advantage.

It sounds like we're getting some sort of bullpen game from the San Francisco Giants, so it's hard to play specific matchups, but it puts the San Diego Padres' bats on the radar.

Any Padres stack always starts with Fernando Tatis Jr. ($3,900), Manny Machado ($3,400), and Juan Soto ($3,400) as the big wants, and then we see lots of value in the rest of the order. Gary Sanchez ($2,600) has posted a team-best .283 ISO since joining San Diego.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.