MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 3/30/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 3/30/24

Saturday's main slate has six night games on tap, and the stacks are getting more and more appealing as we move away from Opening Day aces.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitchers to Target

Logan Gilbert ($9,900)

Without much doubt, Logan Gilbert ($9,900) is today's top pitcher.

Gilbert's Seattle Mariners teammate George Kirby just blanked the visiting Boston Red Sox over 6.2 innings with eight punchouts on Friday, and Boston's order figures to middle against righties this season again after posting just a 100 wRC+ against them a year ago.

Seattle's third starter is far from your average righty, though. Gilbert posted a career-best 3.78 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) last year with a healthy 24.5% strikeout rate.

However, the best case for Gilbert tonight is his situation. In baseball's best park for pitchers, Boston's implied team total is just 3.38 runs. On a slate where offense should rule the day, I can't see myself turning away from his $9,900 salary in cash games.

Dylan Cease ($9,400)

Weighing small samples, Dylan Cease ($9,400) still pops out as a quality second option behind Gilbert in tournaments.

The San Francisco Giants just teed off on his right-handed teammate Joe Musgrove, but I still have league-average expectations for the Gigantes in this split this season. They added righty bats Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler to a lineup that had the league's 11th-worst wRC+ (94) and 7th-highest strikeout rate (24.9) against RHPs last season.

Plus, you could argue Cease's upside as the best on the entire slate. He led all of Saturday's projected arms in strikeout rate (27.1%) a year ago, and his 4.10 SIERA for the year wasn't too shabby.

FanDuel Research's MLB projections are expecting 35.7 fantasy points from Cease in this matchup, which comfortably leads all pitchers on the slate. While preferring Gilbert's security, I totally understand the case for the mustachioed righty.

Others to Consider

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500)
    • Against a St. Louis Cardinals attack with plenty of elite hitters, I'm good sitting out Yamamoto's tenure until we get better data than a 7.20 xFIP in his debut.
  • Tommy Henry ($7,300)
  • Jordan Hicks ($6,000)
    • The Giants want to use the fireballer and former closer as a starter this year, so we could turn to Hicks, owner of a sub-4.50 xFIP in four of five seasons, in future matchups. I'll pass in DFS tonight given it's his first true start ever.

Stacks to Target

Arizona Diamondbacks

For a third straight day, the Arizona Diamondbacks should be a central focus in this realm.

Arizona has started the year with 23 runs in two games -- a trend that might continue against the weak Rockies rotation. Austin Gomber is the third consecutive starter that figures to struggle for the Purple Pinstripes.

Gomber's 5.24 SIERA and 14.7% strikeout rate were both extremely poor last year, and Chase Field's middle-of-the-road park factor isn't exactly a breather for the lefty.

The concern for the D-Backs is that they were weaker against lefties (92 wRC+) than righties (99 wRC+) a year ago, but individual hitters like Ketel Marte ($3,600), Christian Walker ($3,500), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,200), and Eugenio Suarez ($2,900) all have better career splits against lefties than righties.

I'm not too concerned they keep rolling against Colorado's southpaw; the Rockies might just keep pace better tonight against Henry.

Texas Rangers

Oddsmakers are expecting fireworks in Arlington with a projected 9.5 total runs. The defending champs are favorites to score the majority of them.

Kyle Hendricks of the Chicago Cubs is certainly a gettable target. Neither his 2023 SIERA (4.63) or strikeout rate (16.1%) aren't particularly intimidating, and his 23.7% hard-hit rate allowed at home ballooned to 26.3% on the road last season.

The Texas Rangers' calling card in their title run was mashing right-handed pitching, and they did so with a .790 OPS (third-best in MLB) and .195 ISO (second-best) in the regular season.

Chicago's bullpen also is far from the best in baseball, ceding a 32.7% hard-hit rate themselves last season. That was seventh-worst in baseball.

Corey Seager ($3,900), Adolis Garcia ($3,900), Marcus Semien ($3,700), and Evan Carter ($3,000) led the way in this split a year ago, posting at least 120 wRC+ against righties a piece. Projected in the top-four spots in the batting order, I see them as the luxury stack du jour, but Arizona provides a bit more value per dollar of salary.

Others to Consider

  • Los Angeles Dodgers
    • Posting a sub-4.35 SIERA in five consecutive seasons, Lance Lynn is too good of a pitcher to stack against on this slate -- especially at L.A.'s sky-high salaries. I'll fade and pray.
  • Chicago Cubs
    • Chicago's implied total against Cody Bradford (5.30 ERA in 2023) isn't small, either. The Cubbies also demolished lefties a year ago, posting the 10th-best wRC+ (110) in the split.
  • Houston Astros
    • Marcus Stroman is as inconsistent as it comes, but individual nights can be had against him. He's posted a 40.0% hard-hit rate or higher in three straight seasons. I'm looking to buy low on a powerful Houston attack that's scored just five runs in two games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.