Euro 2024 Portugal vs. Slovenia: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas
Euro 2024 Portugal vs. Slovenia: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Euro 2024 is into the knockout rounds, and FanDuel Sportsbook is offering Euro 2024 odds for each game.

On Monday, July 1st, Portugal (6th in the FIFA rankings) take on Slovenia (57th) at 3 p.m. ET in the Round of 16.

What should we expect from this matchup?

All Euro 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Euro 2024 Portugal vs. Slovenia: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Portugal vs. Slovenia Odds

  • Portugal to Win: -260
  • Slovenia to Win: +800
  • Draw: +360
  • Portugal to Advance: -700
  • Slovenia to Advance: +470
  • Over 2.5 Goal Odds: -106
  • Under 2.5 Goal Odds: -116

Portugal vs. Slovenia Analysis

Portugal have been one of the tourney's more impressive teams, and they have the fifth-shortest odds to win Euro 2024 (+650). Those odds would likely be even shorter if they hadn't landed on the much more difficult side of the Euro 2024 bracket.

Portugal is coming off a surprising 2-0 loss to Georgia, but Portugal rolled out a weakened starting lineup for that one due to already clinching its spot atop the group. In their two previous games, Portugal picked up wins over the Czech Republic (2-1) and Turkey (3-0).

The expected goals (xG) data -- per FBRef's xG model -- looks good for Portugal. In those two wins, they won the xG battle 1.9-0.4 against the Czech Republic and 1.9-0.7 versus Turkey. Even in the loss to Georgia, Portugal amassed more xG (2.0) than they gave up (1.7).

Slovenia advanced from an underwhelming Group C, getting a point apiece from clashes with England, Demark and Serbia. Their xG numbers aren't pretty. Through three matches, they've created 2.6 xG and permitted 4.1 xG.

Portugal vs. Slovenia Prediction

Opta's model projects Portugal to win 65.4% of the time, giving Slovenia just 14.5% win odds. A draw is 20.2% likely.

MasseyRatings has Portugal's win odds at 61% and Slovenia's at 16%.

Compared to those models, the Euro 2024 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are overvaluing Portugal a bit. Portugal's -260 moneyline implies win odds of 72.2% -- higher than what either model has.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.