Euro 2024 Italy vs. Croatia: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
Euro 2024 Italy vs. Croatia: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Euro 2024 is underway, and the tournament is starting to take shape. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering Euro 2024 odds for each game.

On Monday, June 24th, Italy (10th in the FIFA rankings) face off with Croatia (9th).

What should we expect from this matchup?

All Euro 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Euro 2024 Italy vs. Croatia: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Italy vs. Croatia Odds

  • Italy to Win: +135
  • Croatia to Win: +210
  • Draw: +220
  • Over 2.5 Goal Odds: -104
  • Under 2.5 Goal Odds: -118

Italy vs. Croatia Analysis

Italy won their opening match against Albania 2-1, but the margin was slightly closer on expected goals (xG) 1.5-0.5, per FBRef's model. They followed that up with a 1-0 loss to Spain in their second match, but the result was much worse on xG -- 2.0-0.2. Their 0.2 xG in that match is the tied for second-lowest in any Euro 2024 match as of Friday afternoon.

Croatia opened their campaign with a 3-0 loss to Spain, but they actually won the game on xG 2.1-2.0. In their second match, they played Albania to a 2-2 draw but once again won the xG battle 2.6-1.5.

Croatia's underlying metrics have been far better than their results thus far while Italy has slightly overperformed their xG results. Both sides will be fighting for a spot in the knockout rounds in this one, and it has the potential to be an exciting and pivotal clash.

Italy vs. Croatia Prediction

Opta's model sees Italy as a favorite, giving the gli Azzurri win odds of 50.6%.

MasseyRatings sees this as a much closer showdown, handing Italy 36% win odds to Croatia's 35%.

The Euro 2024 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook fall in between the two with Italy's +135 moneyline implying win odds of 42.6%.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.