EPL Title Odds: Manchester City Are Three Matches Away From a Fourth Straight Crown

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
EPL Title Odds: Manchester City Are Three Matches Away From a Fourth Straight Crown

There are only a few games left in the English Premier League season, and the title is still very much in the balance. The best Premier League seasons are when things come down to the last day of the campaign, and we have the potential to see that happen this year.

What looked like a three-horse race is now down to just two, with Liverpool falling off the pace. We're down to just Manchester City and Arsenal, and the gap is very thin. Arsenal are one point in front of Man City with two matches left, but City have a game in hand.

When looking at the EPL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, where can we find value in this market?

Here are the current odds for the Premier League title:

EPL Title Odds

Manchester City-320

Manchester City (-360)

Manchester City are trying for something historic in English soccer. Dating back to before the Premier League, no team has won four titles in a row. That goes all the way back to 1889.

City are currently one point behind Arsenal, but their game in hand makes them the favorite to take home the trophy. They don't have the most difficult fixtures in their three remaining games, but it is possible they could drop points in one of them.

In all competitions, City haven't lost a match since December 6th. In the Premier League, their only defeats have been against Arsenal, Wolves, and Aston Villa. Two of those teams are in the top four in the league, with the one oddity being the match away to Wolves. Most of their draws have also come against top teams, including Tottenham.

That match against Tottenham was at The Etihad, and now they'll have to go on the road to play Spurs next Tuesday. That is -- by far -- City's toughest remaining game.

City's record away to Tottenham has been awful over the years. They just picked up their first win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in six games in a January FA Cup match. They won 1-0, and that was the first goal they had ever scored at the stadium.

The good news for City is that Tottenham's form has gone down the drain of late. Spurs have lost four matches in a row at a critical point of the season.

City's form has been the opposite -- for the most part. Since their draw against Arsenal on March 31st, they've won all six of their matches in the league. In those six matches, they've scored fewer than four goals just once.

Man City's other two matches are away to Fulham and at home against West Ham to end the season. City will be a significant favorite in both of those games, and those matches are unlikely to swing the title race.

It's easy to see why City are favored to win the title, as they've gotten the job done in similar situations in 2019 and 2022.

Arsenal (+230)

Arsenal are the current leaders, but they have to hope that City drop points in one of their last three games to have a chance to win their first title since 2004.

It's been a hugely impressive season from Arsenal after their title challenge last year. They've improved in a few different areas, including defensively. They have allowed the fewest expected goals (xG) in the Premier League, according to FBRef.

Their overall xG differential is also the best in the league and the third-best across Europe's top five leagues. They certainly have played well enough to win the Premier League, but the Gunner need a bit of help from one of Spurs, Fulham or West Ham to seal the deal.

Arsenal will take on Manchester United away from home on Sunday, a fixture that would have seemed like a tough game at the beginning of the season. However, Manchester United's form has been horrible, including their recent 4-0 defeat to Crystal Palace. Arsenal are -270 favorites in what will be their penultimate game of the season.

With that being the case and with City being -460 to win at Fulham, if you wanted to back Arsenal, I'd probably hold off on doing so until after this weekend's matches. If Arsenal and City both win as expected, we'll likely see Arsenal's title odds get even longer because there will be only two games left for City to potentially drop points.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.