EPL Golden Boot Odds: Erling Haaland Still the Favorite

There are several interesting races in the Premier League this season. Whether it's the title race, the fight for survival or the battle for the European places, almost every team will be playing for something in the second half.

There are individual awards up for grabs, as well. The race for the top scorer, known as the Golden Boot, is tight. The odds paint an interesting picture of where this race could potentially go, and there are a lot of things up in the air right now. Let's look at the EPL Golden Boot odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

EPL Golden Boot Odds

Erling Haaland (-320)

It's funny looking back to before Erling Haaland joined Manchester City, there was a narrative out there -- for some -- that he wouldn't be able to hack it the Premier League. The thought was that he was coming from the inferior Bundesliga, and the goals wouldn't be as easy to come by in the best league in the world.

Boy, was that wrong!

Haaland was not only able to hack it in England, he set the record for most goals in a Premier League season with 36 in his first campaign in the league. He's been a goal scoring machine everywhere he's gone in his career and has yet to find a level too difficult for him.

Haaland has 71 goals in 75 appearances for Manchester City. He's currently tied with Mohamed Salah for most goals in the league, and he has the most expected goals (xG) in the league, according to FBRef's model.

The twist for Haaland is that he is currently injured. Pep Guardiola said he is hoping to get Haaland back in January, but the timeline seems fairly uncertain. Man City have just two Premier League games scheduled for the month of January, so if Haaland is able to return this month, he is unlikely to miss a ton of opportunities to add to his league goal tally.

It feels a little sketchy to bet on an injured player to lead the league in goals -- especially at these odds. If you are wanting to wager on Haaland, it might be best to hold off for a bit to find out more info on his injury.

Mohamed Salah (+470)

A three-time Golden Boot winner, Salah is definitely in the mix for a fourth.

The Egyptian King scored twice in Liverpool's latest game -- a win over Newcastle. That brought him level with Haaland on 14 goals. Manchester City have a game in hand on Liverpool, but that goes out the window if Haaland is injured.

Salah has benefitted from taking penalties as much as any other player this season. His four goals from the spot are tied for the most in the league. He also has two misses on penalties, so hopefully for his chances in this market, he doesn't blow his opportunity at being Liverpool's penalty taker. His non-penalty xG is just fourth in the league, and trails Haaland and Dominic Solanke in terms of players on this list.

There's a twist with Salah just like there was with Haaland -- the African Cup of Nations is taking place from January 13th until February 11th. That could potentially mean four missed EPL games for Salah if Egypt goes the distance. This is obviously a huge hindrance to him winning the Golden Boot.

However, I wouldn't completely rule out Salah winning the award, especially if Haaland doesn't come back soon. The other top contenders in this market don't offer a ton of competition to him, and they would have to go on a big scoring run to lead the league in goals.

Son Heung-Min (+1600)

Son Heung-Min tied with Salah for the most goals in the 2022-23 season. He currently has 12 goals, trailing the leaders by two.

Son's xG numbers fall way behind those of the other favorites for the Golden Boot. His 7.1 xG ranks 12th in the league, and his 6.3 non-penalty xG ranks 11th. He's been able to score with low xG due to ruthless efficiency. Tottenham's play style hasn't generated a ton of xG overall, but they have still scored the fourth-most goals in the league.

It took Tottenham a while to earn their first penalty in the Premier League this season, but when they did, Son was the man to take it. If that sticks, that would be great for Son's outlook.

In this crazy Golden Boot race, nothing is straightforward. Like Salah, Son will be away on international duty for the immediate future as South Korea are in the 2024 Asian Cup, which begins on January 12th and ends on February 10th. Tottenham have four league matches in that time.

Given that Son is two goals back and could miss four games, it's tough to back him.

Dominic Solanke (+2400)

The longest shot we will talk about for the Golden Boot is Dominic Solanke of Bournemouth.

Solanke is the one player on here who isn't dealing with an injury or an upcoming international tournament. He's been in excellent form, scoring eight goals in his last eight league matches. Bournemouth are now tied with Tottenham for the best form in the league.

Once a solid prospect for both Chelsea and Liverpool, Solanke has taken a while to come good in the Premier League. He scored just 10 times in 96 EPL matches before this season -- he's already exceeded that 10-goal total this year.

That's not to say he's been a complete fluke. Solanke ranks third in both xG and non-penalty xG, and he has more non-penalty xG than Mo Salah.

The trouble with Solanke is the club he plays for. Bournemouth will not be in position to dominate many games like Manchester City, Liverpool or even Tottenham. Solanke would have to continue to score multiple goals against the likes of Nottingham Forest, who he scored a hat trick against on December 23rd.

Solanke is an interesting long shot bet, especially if Haaland is out through January and the other contenders wind up missing the maximum number of games they could miss via international duty.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.