Soccer

EPL Betting Picks: Manchester City at Tottenham (5/14/24)

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
EPL Betting Picks: Manchester City at Tottenham (5/14/24)

We've got a huge match in the Premier League on Tuesday. Both Manchester City and Tottenham will only have one contest left after this game.

This match could decide if Manchester City will with their fourth and could be impactful for Tottenham as well. City will enter this game one point behind Arsenal at the top of the league table with this being their game in hand that could see them leap into first place.

With so much on the line, this match will certainly be one of the most exciting to watch of the entire season. How should we bet on this match, based on the EPL soccer odds on FanDuel Sportsbook?

Best Bet

Manchester City First Half (-145)

With everything on the line, it's hard to see Manchester City slipping up in this game. They've been in similar positions in 2019 and 2022, where dropping points would cost them the title, and they performed perfectly.

City have been in demolition mode in the league for a while. Ever since they drew against Arsenal on March 31st, their form has been unbelievable. They've won all seven games and scored at least four goals in six of those seven matches.

Tottenham haven't been in the best form. They won on Saturday, but that was against a Burnley side that got relegated after that defeat. Before that match, they had lost four games in a row and five of their last six. Spurs have lost five matches at home this season, including to Arsenal three games ago.

The underlying metrics have not been kind to Tottenham this season. Their expected goal (xG) differential is only ninth in the league, according to FBRef.com. They are worse than teams like Chelsea, Newcastle and Brentford by this measure.

Another thing working against Spurs are injuries. They will be without two dangerous attackers in Timo Werner and Richarlison. In defense, they'll be without Destiny Udogie and Ben Davies, so they will be using a makeshift left back in either Oliver Skipp or Micky van de Ven.

Manchester City are -290 favorites to win this match, but those odds are a bit too long to make me want to bet on them. So, we'll go with a halftime bet instead. They've won the first half in their last five league matches.

City have had no trouble scoring goals lately, which makes me feel better about City scoring in the first half and being able to win this bet.

Player Prop

Phil Foden to Score (+140)

Phil Foden has arguably been Manchester City's most important player down the stretch this season. He has two Premier League hat tricks since February -- and two other games where he's scored twice.

His goal-scoring has been close to on par with Erling Haaland since the calendar flipped to 2024. In 21 matches, he has 16 goals, whereas Haaland has 17 in 20. Yet, Haaland is -185 to score at any time, but we're getting +140 on Foden.

Foden has 9 goals in his last 9 away matches, and he could easily make that 10 in 10. Tottenham have conceded the 8th-most xG (60.0) and 10th-most actual goals (59). They aren't a team to lock things down defensively.

I like this price on Foden to score, especially with his form of late. He's found the back of the net three times in the last three matches.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.