EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 36: Will Brentford Triumph Over West Ham?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz

There's not a lot of game action left in the season, and the action should be fast and furious from here on out.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting Picks: Matchweek 36

Fulham at Brentford (10 AM ET Saturday)

Brentford Moneyline (+110)

With seven London clubs in the Premier League, we get a London derby nearly every matchweek. This week, it's a west London derby between Fulham and Brentford.

These teams don't have much to play for, as neither will get relegated and neither has a chance to qualify for a European competition. There is, however, definitely a gap between the two teams.

Fulham are ahead of Brentford in the league table, but they probably aren't the better team. Brentford are much better in the expected goals (xG) department. In fact, Brentford are the seventh-best team in the Premier League in xG differential, according to FBRef. That's much better than their 16th-placed position in the table suggests.

They certainly look better by xG than Fulham does. Fulham are 14th in xG differential per 90 minutes. They also have poor form, winning just one of their last six matches. Brentford had gone five games unbeaten before a loss last week to Everton, so they have the form advantage, as well.

Fulham have really struggled away from home this season. They have the fifth-worst xG differential per 90 minutes and the sixth-worst points per match.

Since we're getting better than even money on the Bees to win, I like taking the side that I think is better and also has the benefit of playing at home.

Newcastle at Burnley (10 AM ET Saturday)

Under 2.5 Goals (+161)

Burnley don't have much time left to save themselves from relegation. With just three games left, they are in 19th place, two points from safety.

We know Burnley's style in home matches this season. They would prefer nothing to happen in these matches. They have the lowest xG for in home matches but also have conceded just the 10th-most goals. They've conceded fewer xG at home than top 10 clubs like Aston Villa, Manchester United, Tottenham, and West Ham have.

The difference between Newcastle at home and Newcastle on the road is pretty drastic. At home, the Magpies have created the second-most xG, ahead of both Arsenal and Manchester City. Away from home, they have generated the sixth-fewest. They've scored 26 away goals this season but eight of them came in one match against Sheffield United -- the worst defensive team in Premier League history.

In four of Burnley's last five matches, there have been two or fewer goals. There's been two or fewer in three of Newcastle's last five. When these teams played all the way back in August, Newcastle won by a 2-0 score.

We're getting such good odds on this bet, and there is a lot of evidence that this game could be a low-scoring clash. Sit back and hope these teams struggle to find the net in this match on Saturday.

Player Props

Phil Foden to Score (+110): Assuming he's over the illness that kept him out last week, Phil Foden should be able to score in this game.

Foden has been on fire for Manchester City in 2024. Since the turn of the calendar to the new year, he has 15 goals -- two more than Erling Haaland. Haaland is -240 to score, but we're getting better than even money on Foden scoring.

With City being -1200 favorites in this match, we can expect them to score often. They are facing Wolves, who have allowed the seventh-most xG in the EPL.

Chris Wood to Score (+135): Chris Wood and Nottingham Forest are desperate for points, as they are just one point above the relegation zone. Luckily for them, they'll play a weak opponent on Saturday.

Forest are away from home against Sheffield United. The Blades have already been relegated and have set the record for most Premier League goals conceded with three games still to play.

Wood is sixth in the EPL in goals per 90 minutes, ahead of superstars such as Mo Salah and Son Heung-min. If he was a bit of a bigger name or played for a better team, these odds might be closer to even money, so I'll take what I perceive to be value and back Wood to score.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.