Daily Strikeout Leader: Can Nick Pivetta Deliver Despite a Tough Matchup?

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas
Daily Strikeout Leader: Can Nick Pivetta Deliver Despite a Tough Matchup?

Each day on FanDuel Sportsbook, there is no shortage of MLB odds to sift through, and you're likely familiar with a lot of them. That includes strikeout props, which are entertaining because they add importance to each pitch.

FanDuel Sportsbook has cranked that up a few notches with its daily strikeout leader market. Not only do you need your hurler to rack up Ks -- you need them to get more punchouts than any of the day's other starting pitchers.

Here are today's odds in that market. We'll also reference our MLB projections, which are powered by numberFire.

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Ks in Starts
Bailey Ober+43015835.525.2%28.9%
Logan Gilbert+43016996.224.6%29.5%
Charlie Morton+85014805.724.1%27.1%
Ronel Blanco+85014795.623.7%29.4%
Yusei Kikuchi+120016865.424.2%29.3%
Drew Thorpe+1200393.013.6%25.0%
Max Scherzer+2400144.025.0%22.8%
View Full Table

MLB Daily Strikeout Leader

The Top Tier

Bailey Ober (+430), Logan Gilbert (+430), Ronel Blanco (+850) and Charlie Morton (+850) are the four hurlers with odds shorter than +1200 today. Of the four -- and factoring in the odds -- I'm most intrigued by Morton, although each of them has a solid case.

The veteran righty gets a date with the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team with the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers (24.7%).

Morton is still missing bats in his age-40 campaign, posting a 24.1% strikeout rate and 11.9% swinging-strike rate. He's yet to get more than eight punchouts in a game this year, and it usually takes more than that to cash in this market. But with Morton in such a good spot against Pittsburgh, he has the necessary upside today.

Our projections have Morton at 6.71 strikeouts, tops of the night.

In the Nick of Time

I've been intrigued by Nick Pivetta throughout his career because he's shown the ability to consistently get Ks. I'm interested in him today at his +2400 odds.

Let's get the negative out of the way -- Pivetta has a brutal matchup for punchouts against the San Diego Padres, the offense that owns the lowest K rate versus righties (18.2%). Not ideal. But I think that's more than baked into the odds.

Pivetta has a 27.2% strikeout rate for the season, and that number was at 31.2% last season. In short, he's a top-notch strikeout pitcher. His K rate is 30.2% at home this year, which is where he'll be today. He's also fanned at least eight in 5 of his 11 starts this year.

All in all, Pivetta has to be downgraded because of the Padres' ability to avoid strikeouts, but these +2400 odds might be a touch too long, especially on a night without any elite strikeout pitchers going. Our projections peg Pivetta for the night's third-most Ks (6.28).

What Else Is Out There?

Most days, I'm pretty good at talking myself into a few long shots. I'm having a tougher time with it today, but Colin Rea (+3400) is someone I can get behind in his matchup with the Chicago Cubs.

First of all, the matchup is a good one for strikeouts as Chicago is tied for the sixth-highest K rate versus right-handers (24.5%).

Rea has kind of stunk this season (15.6% strikeout rate and 4.78 SIERA), but just last year, he was significantly better, particularly in the strikeout department (21.3% K rate and 10.2% swinging-strike rate).

Among the long shots, Rea is the hurler I can most stomach.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.