Copa America 2024 Final: Argentina vs. Colombia: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Copa America 2024 wraps up on Sunday, and FanDuel Sportsbook has Copa America 2024 odds for the final.

At 8 p.m. ET Sunday night, Argentina (first in the FIFA rankings) face off with Colombia (12th).

What should we expect from this matchup?

All Copa America 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Copa America Final Argentina vs. Colombia: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Argentina vs. Colombia Odds

• Argentina to Win: +110
• Colombia to Win: +330
• Draw: +185
• Over 2.5 Goal Odds: +184
• Under 2.5 Goal Odds: -230
• Argentina to Lift the Trophy: -188
• Colombia to Lift the Trophy: +158

Argentina vs. Colombia Best Bet

Colombia Moneyline (+330)

This is a final between two sides that deserve to be here as Colombia and Argentina have both been superb this tournament.

While it's hard to bet against the World Cup winners, Colombia to win in the 90 minutes is where I land on this match.

Colombia have been excellent all tourney, particularly defensively. Colombia haven’t given up more than 0.8 expected goals -- per FBRef's xG model -- in any match this tournament while creating at least 1.2 xG in every match aside from their opener.

They've already shown they can out-play elite sides. In the group stage, they drew 1-1 with Brazil but deserved better as they convincingly won the match on xG, 1.4-0.3. In the semifinals against Uruguay, Colombia won, 1-0, and played the entire second half a man down. Despite the red card, they still allowed only 0.8 xG to a quality Uruguay side.

It's not like Argentina aren't playing well -- they're playing really well.

Aside from a hiccup versus Ecuador in the quarterfinals -- a match Argentina lost 1.7-0.8 by xG but survived on penalties -- Argentina have created at least 2.1 xG in every other game while allowing a combined total of 2.0 xG across those four matches, 1.3 of which came in their first match of the tourney. Argentina are deserving favorites, but they might be listed as too big of a favorite.

MasseyRatings' model gives Colombia a 31% chance to win, which would come out to a +233 moneyline -- much shorter than Colombia's +330 moneyline.

I prefer taking Colombia to win in the 90 minutes as opposed to taking Colombia to lift the trophy at +146. The only difference there is penalties. Copa America doesn't use extra time, so if it's a draw after 90 minutes, they go straight to pens. I don't want to bet against Argentina and goalie Emiliano Martinez if this goes to spot kicks, so I side with Colombia's moneyline.

Argentina vs. Colombia Prediction

Opta's model has Argentina winning in 90 minutes 50.4% of the time while projecting a draw (23.6%) and a Colombia win (25.4%) as nearly equally likely.

MasseyRatings gives Argentina a 41% chance to win while putting Colombia's win odds at 31%.

The Copa America 2024 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook list Argentina at +110 to win, which implies win odds of 47.6% -- splitting those two models right down the middle.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.