WNBA

Commissioner's Cup Championship: Betting Picks, Player Props for Lynx vs. Liberty

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

The WNBA is back, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty

Lynx +5.5 (-108)

The stage is set for the WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship, and the Minnesota Lynx (13-3) will look to dethrone last season's victors, the New York Liberty (15-3).

An awesome matchup and an intriguing financial incentive, which includes a $500,000 prize pool for the winning team, should make for a competitive game.

With this and Minnesota's red-hot start in mind, I see no reason why the Lynx can't keep up tonight.

Napheesa Collier has established herself as one of the best players in the league and currently boasts +1100 WNBA MVP odds (second-shortest). She has helped the Lynx secure a league-best net rating and defensive rating.

These teams met up earlier this season, and Minnesota pulled away with an 84-67 victory. The Lynx outscored the Liberty by 21 points from behind the arc despite taking only one fewer attempt from long range. We should in no way expect this to happen again. Minnesota may have the best three-point offense and defense in the league, but the overperformance and underperformance from that game from each respective squad likely won't repeat itself.

With that said, I'm encouraged that we still would have been looking at a four-point game even if the two teams had been equal from downtown

Minnesota has won 11 of their games by double-digits (most in the WNBA), and two of their three losses were decided by a mere point. While New York has been equally dominant at times, they've still dropped games to inferior teams such as the Chicago Sky and Phoenix Mercury. Even more pressing, the Liberty are 3-3 against teams that rank in the top five of defensive rating.

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (knee) is questionable for tonight's contest and could miss her third straight game for New York. The Liberty have managed to win a pair of games against bad teams in her absence, but Laney-Hamilton would likely be key to their success against Minnesota. Her contributions on defense cannot be replicated, and she leads the league in net rating (among players who average at least 20 minutes).

New York has some great closers on their side, namely Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones. Although the impending NBA Draft has forced the home team to move offsite and play this one at UBS Arena, it's hard to count out this New York group. But given everything we have seen from Minnesota, I'm pretty comfortable backing a two-possession outcome.

Napheesa Collier Over 29.5 Pts + Reb (-108)

Minnesota needs a good game from Collier tonight, and luckily, we've seen quite a few of those this season.

Collier is averaging 31.3 combined points and rebounds (PR) and has exceeded 29.5 PR in 10 out of 16 games. She's also cleared this number in four out of five Commissioner's Cup contests.

Between last season and this campaign, Collier has surpassed 29.5 PR in 73.7% of games (28 out of 38 contests) in which she played more than 30 minutes.

She's playing 34.8 minutes per game (fourth-most in the WNBA), and it should be all systems go for her in what might just be the most important regular-season game of the year. It helps that she typically isn't a foul-trouble candidate.

I have little doubt that Collier will log more than 30 minutes in this one, and that 73.7% hit rate in the split in comparison to these -108 odds (51.9% implied probability) shows plenty of value.

If you have faith that Minnesota can take home the championship, I'd also consider targeting Naphessa Collier to win the Commissioner's Cup MVP (+290). While teammate Kayla McBride has put on a show as of late, Collier has contributed 20.4 points and 11.0 rebounds across Commissioner's Cup play and will likely serve as the main force in a potential Minnesota win this evening.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.