College Football Betting Picks for Saturday 10/21/23

7mo

College Football Betting Picks for Saturday 10/21/23

College football is officially at the spot where the contenders and pretenders begin to separate.

With seven rounds of the 2023-24 CFB season now completed, Week 8 features three AP Top 25 matchups. Of those, I am most excited for a battle at The 'Shoe between the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes and No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions.

From there, heavyweight clashes between the No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers and No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide, and the No. 16 Duke Blue Devils and No. 4 Florida State Seminoles should also provide intense competition.

Additionally, the Nevada-Las Vegas Rebels are back in action this weekend after trouncing their archrival on the road last weekend. Although unorthodox, there is a very convincing reason we have been following UNLV this season.

Let's dive into Saturday's college football schedule with an emphasis on scoping out the most valuable lines in traditional betting markets.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Betting Picks (10/21/23)

(#7) Penn State Nittany Lions at (#3) Ohio State Buckeyes

Time: 12 p.m. EST
TV: FOX
Spread: OSU -5.5 (-104)
Moneyline: PSU +164/OSU -200
Total: 45.5

Since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993, an argument can be made that they have been Ohio State's second-biggest rival after the Michigan Wolverines. That adversity will be escalated this weekend since the Nittany Lions' College Football Playoff hopes go through Columbus. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Penn State's odds to make the CFB playoff currently show at +270.

Still, Ohio State seems to be hitting their stride at just the right time. They are coming off a shellacking of the Purdue Boilermakers, winning by 34 points in West Lafayette. Regardless, the Buckeyes will now face their toughest test of the year -- at least until the final game of the regular season in Ann Arbor.

Of course, Penn State is also undefeated at 6-0 straight up (SU) right now. Perhaps most impressively for the Nittany Lions is their average margin of victory in 2023: an astonishing 36.8 points. That figure was aided by their 63-0 victory of the Massachusetts Minutemen last Saturday.

Best Bet: Penn State +5.5 (-118)

Admittedly, this is a really tough call. But in all games I have watched from these Big Ten sides over 2023, I think the Nittany Lions have turned my head slightly more. According to the CFB power rankings on numberFire, there is a razor thin margin between OSU (30.86 nERD) and PSU (30.15 nERD); the Buckeyes are second in the country while Penn State is right behind at third.

The Nittany Lions have really not played in a close game yet, whereas Ohio State has had two notably slow starts this season: at the Indiana Hoosiers and No. 15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Simply, I think that will give Penn State the needed confidence to play strong at The 'Shoe.

I am not emphatic about playing Penn State's moneyline (+164), but I absolutely think they can keep the score close against Ohio State. Respective head coaches Ryan Day and James Franklin will be playing chess on the gridiron, as there are not many weaknesses to point to here. Considering everything PSU has showed in 2023, I will take them getting 5.5 points -- especially since many other shops have Penn State getting only 4.5.

Washington State Cougars at (#9) Oregon Ducks

Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
TV: ABC
Spread: ORE -19.5
Moneyline: WSU +800/ORE -1400
Total: 62.5 (-105/-115)

The No. 9 Oregon Ducks are coming off a heartbreaking loss last weekend at the rival No. 5 Washington Huskies, 36-33. This Saturday, they'll have a chance to avenge that loss against the Evergreen State's other Pac-12 program: the Washington State Cougars.

The Cougs will make the short trip from Pullman, WA to Eugene, OR to face the Fighting Ducks. Wazzu has not defeated UO since 2018, which gives Oregon a four-game winning streak in this head-to-head series. Of course, with the Ducks laying three scores against the spread (ATS) this Saturday, they will need to do much more than just win.

Despite Oregon's recent loss, I think they still might be the Pac-12's best all-around football team in 2023. ESPN's latest College Football Power Index concurs, ranking the Ducks sixth in the entire country (and first in the conference). Washington is 10th in FBS.

Best Bet: Oregon -19.5 (-110)

By no means do I consider Washington State to be a slouch. They have talent in various position groups, especially on offense; the Cougars are averaging a lofty 34.3 PPG in 2023. Still, I really am not giving them much of a shot in Eugene this Saturday.

I'm quite certain Oregon will be looking to get the bad taste out of their mouth from last week. Quarterback Bo Nix has the offense churning for 48.5 PPG; that is the top scoring mark of all 133 FBS schools. On the other side of the ball, the Ducks have a defense to back it up, surrendering just 15.8 PPG in 2023.

Also, Oregon still holds onto real CFP aspirations. If they can run the table and win the 2023-24 Pac-12 Championship Game, they will almost certainly finish the season as a top-four team. Their record ATS should give them a boost, as well; the Ducks are 5-1 using FanDuel Sportsbook's numbers in that category.

Basically, I am back on Oregon this weekend. Laying 19.5 points is daunting, but they have already covered three spreads larger than that this year.

Colorado State Rams at UNLV Rebels

Time: 7 p.m. EST
TV: SSSN
Spread: UNLV -7.5
Moneyline: CSU +260/UNLV -330
Total: 63.5 (-115/-105)

It is not often that I quote Billy Idol, but "with a rebel yell, they cried 'more, more, more!'"

Notably, the football team from UNLV has played to a perfect 6-0 ATS record, showing 5-1 SU in head coach Barry Odom's first year with the program. In Week 8, Nevada-Las Vegas will prepare to host a Mountain West foe when facing the Colorado State Rams.

As conference rivals, UNLV and CSU seem to be trending in opposite directions. Still, neither side here has won the Mountain West in quite some time; the Rams did it more recently, earning title in 2002.

Colorado State is coming off their best win of the season, outlasting the Boise State Broncos, 31-30. Across the field, UNLV is returning from Reno where they trounced the archrival Nevada Wolf Pack. Ironically, that is where CSU's head coach Jay Norvell came from before taking over in Fort Collins.

Best Bet: UNLV -7.5 (-110)

The Rams have showed a couple strong efforts in 2023, notably pushing Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes to the brink last month. Being that this game will be played at "Fabulous" Las Vegas' Allegiant Stadium, I still like the home side to cover 7.5 points.

As noted, UNLV has covered the spread in every contest to this point. Much of their success has been anchored to a strong offensive attack, pounding the rock for 221.5 rushing YPG (along with 2.5 rushing touchdowns on average). Additionally, fill-in quarterback Jayden Maiava is still playing at a highly efficient level, yielding a 62.2% completion clip on 8.1 yards per passing attempt. His passer rating shines at 140.3.

It should not be too tough of travel from Fort Collins to Vegas, but CSU has not been the same team on the road compared to at home. In 2023, they have just one lone road victory, which came at the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders.

On ESPN's most recent SP+ rankings, the Rebels (-5.8) are rated considerably higher than CSU (-12.3). That gives me all the confidence I need to make a play on a team that is undefeated at home and undefeated ATS. Somehow, these guys have gone under the radar in most oddsmakers' backyard.

Looking for the latest college football odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the college football betting options.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.