NCAAB

Notre Dame at North Carolina: 3 Prop Bets to Target

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
Notre Dame at North Carolina: 3 Prop Bets to Target

With a win against Notre Dame on Tuesday, North Carolina can clinch a share of the ACC regular-season title. To win the conference outright, the Tar Heels will need to win out, including Saturday's highly anticipated matchup against Duke.

Following four consecutive wins, taking down the Fighting Irish at home could prove to be light work for UNC as FanDuel Sportsbook has the Heels favored by 15.5 points. Notre ranks 122nd in KenPom -- the third-worst mark in the conference.

The game lines could be less intriguing with the Tar Heels listed as heavy favorites. However, several player props are standing out for Notre Dame-North Carolina. What could be the best college basketball props on FanDuel for this ACC clash?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Notre Dame at North Carolina Prop Bets

Braeden Shrewsberry To Make 3+ Threes (-110)

Starting off with a prop for the Irish, Notre Dame's Braeden Shrewsberry leads the team with 189 three-point attempts on the season while cashing a team-best 37.6% of his shots from beyond the arc. His three-point volume has spiked over the last five games at 8.6 shots per game compared to his season average of 6.5 attempts.

While North Carolina features KenPom's sixth-best adjusted defensive efficiency, they rank in the bottom 36% in three-point shots allowed per game. An overwhelming 74.7% of Shrewsberry's shots come from three-point lands.

The Fighting Irish's guard is averaging 4.3 made threes over his last four outings thanks to cashing in six and seven three-pointers in back-to-back games. This feels like a game where Shrewsberry can excel due to a susceptible perimeter defense.

We should also take into account the pace of this game. UNC looks to push the pace, ranking in the 88th percentile for the quickest paces in the country. The Tar Heels are also in the 88th percentile for shots per game. This only aids Shrewsberry's chances of getting even more three-point looks in a fast-paced game. Give me the Notre Dame guard to make at least three three-pointers.

Harrison Ingram To Record 10+ Rebounds (+136)

One major flaw for the Irish is their rebounding. Notre Dame sits in the bottom 50% in offensive rebounding percentage, which should mean a big game for the Heels, who rank in the 99th percentile of defensive rebounding percentage.

Armando Bacot (25.9%) and Harrison Ingram (20.8%) are one of the best rebounding frontcourts in America as both players are among the top 14 best defensive rebounding percentages in the ACC. Bacot totals 10.3 rebounds per game (RPG) while Ingram averages 9.1 RPG.

Deciding which Tar Heel is poised for the best game on the boards could be the biggest challenge. I like Ingram to have another huge game on the glass after reaching double-digit rebounds in four of his last five games. In comparison, Bacot has logged double-digit boards in seven of his previous eight outings.

Fortunately, there should be plenty of boards to go around, for the Irish sit in the bottom 6% in field goal percentage (FG%). Pair that with North Carolina boasting the sixth-best adjusted defensive efficiency and you're cooking with gas -- especially when it comes to corralling defensive rebounds.

Notre Dame has only one player among the top 25 best defensive rebounding percentages in the ACC (Carey Booth). Offensive rebounding isn't much better; Kebba Njie is the only player among the top 15 best offensive rebounding percentages in the conference.

UNC's frontcourt could feast on the glass, and Ingram's +136 odds to reach double-digit rebounds only add to the intrigue.

RJ Davis Over 20.5 Points (-102)

To round out my props for Notre Dame-North Carolina, I'm targeting the points for one of the best guards in the nation -- RJ Davis. The senior guard has been quite streaky over his last three games, totaling 14 points or fewer in two games. Yet, he erupted for 42 points on February 26th.

This is quite unusual for one of college basketball's most talented scorers. Usually, the Tar Heels have been able to count on Davis for 20 points on any day of the week. His 21.4 PPG average is the ninth-best mark in America. Will he go back to his usual production against the Fighting Irish?

I believe the answer is yes, and the -102 odds to eclipse 20 points could be too good to pass on.

Notre Dame's backcourt -- Markus Burton and Braeden Shrewsberry -- have Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR) of under 2.00, per EvanMiya. Shrewsberry's -0.37 DBPR is especially concerning. Davis could regularly cook the freshman guard if given one-on-one opportunities.

This pick is pretty simple. Davis is an elite scorer who is going against one of the worst teams in the ACC and has a poor defensive backcourt. Additionally, reaching 21 points for Davis is not a big ask; this would simply require UNC's superstar guard to hit his PPG average.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.