College Basketball Betting Picks for Monday 2/26/24

The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Best Bets

McNeese State Cowboys at Lamar Cardinals

McNeese State -9.5 (-110)

With March Madness rapidly approaching, this is the time of the season when college basketball fans typically shift their focus to mid-major squads. We see small schools go on improbable runs every season, and upsets go down in the NCAA Tournament like clockwork. The McNeese State Cowboys have been one of the best mid-major schools this season, ranking 65th in KenPom and 52nd in the NCAA's NET Rankings.

McNeese is also tied for the third-best record in the nation at 24-3. They've dominated the Southland Conference with a 13-1 record; the Cowboys have the chance to put another feather in their cap against the Lamar Cardinals on Monday.

Despite their 15-12 record, Lamar could be a tougher task than expected with their 10-2 home record. Plus, McNeese is 6-5-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road.

Even with the trends that suggest a cover for the Cardinals, I'm still backing the Cowboys thanks to their defense. Lamar does an exceptional job of attacking the rim, ranking in the 83rd percentile of two-point makes and attempts per game. However, McNeese gives up the fewest two-point shots and makes in the nation. The Cardinals' three-point shooting at 35.7% (75th percentile) could be a cause for concern with the Cowboys sitting in the bottom 5% of three-point shots allowed per game. But Lamar has struggled in recent games with a 26.6% over their last four.

With the Cardinals ranking 259th in adjusted defensive efficiency, the McNeese offense has plenty of advantageous matchups. For example, the Cowboys are in the 96th percentile with a 49.3% field goal percentage (FG%) and average 21.4 converted two-pointers per game (92nd percentile). Meanwhile, Lamar ranks outside the top 150 in opponent effective field goal percentage (eFG%).

McNeese looks to have a long list of advantages, which could lead to a cover on the road.

UNC Wilmington Seahawks at Campbell Fighting Camels

UNC Wilmington -9.5 (-105)

Let's keep our focus on mid-major matchups with UNC Wilmington visiting Campbell. KenPom ratings alone could give the answer for which side to take with the Seahawks ranking 102nd while the Fighting Camels are 303rd. While UNC Wilmington sit second in the Coastal Athletic Association (CAA) standings, they still boast the top KenPom mark in the conference.

numberFire's daily game projections are suggesting the Seahawks to cover the spread. I agree with this sentiment -- here's why.

Wilmington is clearly led by their offense with the 56th-best adjusted offensive efficiency and 189th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Campbell's defense could fall short as they rank 293rd in adjusted defensive efficiency (bottom 20%). The Seahawks love to throw up shots from deep, ranking in the 78th percentile of three-point shots and makes per game. UNC Wilmington also takes 40.4% of their field goals from beyond the arc, which is in the 72nd percentile.

The Camels' perimeter defense looks to be in deep trouble as they are in the bottom 8% of three-point shots allowed per contest. Additionally, Campbell is in the bottom 5% with opponents shooting 43.6% of their field goals from three. This could mean big games for KJ Jenkins (12.5 PPG) and Donovan Newby (7.6 PPG), who lead the team in three-point shots per game.

The ship could already sinking for the Fighting Camels; their defense looks to be outmatched against the Seahawks.

No. 15 Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs

TCU -2.5 (-110)

To round out my picks for Monday, I'm targeting a spread in the Big 12 clash between Baylor and TCU. The Horned Frogs are given a 65.1% chance of winning by numberFire. The Bears have failed to cover back-to-back games while TCU is 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games and 4-0 ATS over their previous four contests.

As usual, Baylor is shooting the three at a high clip with 8.9 makes per game (86th percentile) while carrying a 39.6% three-point percentage (99th percentile). While the Horned Frogs rank 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency and the Bears are 5th in adjusted offensive efficiency, TCU has a stout perimeter defense with opponents totaling only 6.4 made three-pointers each contest (81st percentile).

The Frogs' offense could also be gearing up for a good game with Baylor ranking 85th in adjusted defensive efficiency. TCU sits in the 95th percentile of two-point attempts and makes per game while 43.2% of their field goals are labeled as close twos by Bart Torvik (90th percentile). The Bears sit in the bottom 31% of opponent two-pointers made per game and in opponent two-point percentage.

Emanuel Miller (16.1 PPG) and Micah Peavy (11.3 PPG) lead the Horned Frogs in scoring while taking 50.6% and 45.2% of their shots at the rim. Miller and Peavy have potential matchups with Jalen Bridges (1.28) and Ja'Kobe Walter (1.28) who both have Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR) of under 1.30, per EvanMiya.

Thanks to TCU's perimeter defense and ability to attack the rim, I'm backing the home team to cover the spread.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.