Soccer

Champions League Final Betting Picks: Real Madrid vs. Dortmund (6/1/24)

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
Champions League Final Betting Picks: Real Madrid vs. Dortmund (6/1/24)

The biggest game in club soccer will take place on Saturday between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. The match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London -- the scene of Dortmund's last appearance in the Champions League Final. Dortmund beat Real Madrid on the way to that final in 2013 but ultimately fell short.

That was the last final before Real Madrid's current stretch of dominance in this competition. They've won five of the last 10 Champions League crowns, with no other team having won it more than once in that time. This has padded their lead of overall Champions League trophies, as their 14 is double that of AC Milan's seven in second place.

So, how should we bet this game, given the Champions League soccer odds on FanDuel Sportsbook?

Champions League Final Betting Picks

Real Madrid in 90 Minutes (-165)

Real Madrid enter this game as the big favorites, as they are -350 to lift the trophy. This is both because of their pedigree in the Champions League and because of how they've played this season.

Madrid lost just twice all season in any competition -- both to city rivals Atletico Madrid. They beat a good Barcelona side three times throughout the season and got two draws against Manchester City in the UCL before beating them on penalties.

In La Liga this season, Real Madrid had an expected goal (xG) differential of +0.88 per 90 minutes, according to FBRef. That was the second-best clip in the league and the ninth-best across Europe's big five leagues.

Dortmund finished fifth in the Bundesliga, and they will not be in the Champions League next season unless they win this match. Their xG differential per 90 minutes was just +0.34, fifth-best in Germany's top flight.

In the knockout stages of this competition, Dortmund definitely rode their luck. They didn't win the xG battle in any individual leg over the three rounds, including losing 3.0-0.7 in the second leg against PSG.

A standout star for Dortmund in this run to the final has been Mats Hummels. He was named man of the match in both legs of the semifinal versus PSG. It will be difficult for him against the front three of Real Madrid, which consists of Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo, and Jude Bellingham. Those three can drag him all over the place because of their movement and fluent play, and the 35-year-old defender has never been blessed with a lot of pace.

I think this matchup greatly favors Real Madrid, but I don't want to lay the -350 odds for them to win in any way. Instead, I'll take the -165 for Real Madrid to win in 90 minutes.

Champions League Final Prop Bets

Rodrygo to Score (+200)

Rodrygo has been known to score some big goals in the Champions League, and he could bag one here.

In La Liga, Rodrygo had 11.7 xG. That was good for second on the team. He scored just 10 goals though, so he underperformed a bit. However, he added five goals in 12 appearances in the Champions League.

Dortmund conceded the 10th-most xG in the Bundesliga this season. Their 52 xG permitted was 7.5 more than Mainz -- a 13th-placed team that won just seven times all season. Dortmund are prone to allowing chances, and Rodrygo can take advantage of that in this game.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.