Champions League Betting Picks for Wednesday 11/8/23
More Champions League action comes our way on Wednesday.
When looking at the Champions League soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for Wednesday?
Champions League Betting: Wednesday 11/8/23
Lens at PSV Eindhoven (3:00 PM ET )
PSV Moneyline (-140)
These teams matched up 15 days ago, and the result was a 1-1 draw. That's fairly surprising considering the league form of both clubs.
PSV has completely dominated the Eredivisie in the Netherlands. They have won all 11 matches in the league and have done it in style. They've scored 41 goals and conceded just five. In terms of expected goals (xG), they are averaging an xG differential of +2.47 per 90 minutes (via FBRef).
Meanwhile, Lens are 10th in Ligue 1 in France. Their xG differential per 90 is 0.38, and their actual goal differential is -1. They've scored just 12 goals in 11 matches in league play.
In the meeting two weeks ago, PSV had a possession advantage away from home. Lens have won just once away from home all season.
The Eredivisie is a lower standard than the Champions League, but if PSV can carry over that form to this home game, they should be able to win this match.
Manchester United at FC Copenhagen (3:00 PM ET )
Under 2.5 Goals (+122)
Manchester United continue to struggle in the Premier League. Even their wins are fairly unconvincing, such as their 1-0 victory against Fulham last Saturday.
Another unconvincing United victory was their win against Copenhagen two weeks ago. That finished 1-0, with a last-minute penalty save preserving the win for United that day.
The Red Devils' attack has been extremely lacking. They've created more than 2.0 xG in just one match since August. It's unlikely that they will suddenly be able to turn on the style away from home.
The combined xG between the two sides in the meeting at Old Trafford was 3.6, including the penalty. The lack of finishing ability on both sides meant there was only one goal in the match, though some credit must go to both goalkeepers.
Copenhagen are in first in the Danish league so far this season. We don't have access to xG data from that league, but we can see how they performed in the other Champions League matches. In games against Galatasaray and Bayern Munich, there was a total of 1.7 and 1.8 xG, respectively.
I'm into the under for this game, especially at +122.
Lautaro Martinez to Score (+130): Inter's star striker is having an incredible start to the season. Only two players in Europe's top five leagues have scored more goals than he has.
This goal-scoring streak has not carried over to the Champions League just yet. Martinez has only one goal in three matches so far in the group stage. He does have 3.0 xG in those three games, though, and could easily score in this match.
Inter will play away from home against RB Salzburg. At home against Salzburg last time out, Inter were able to win, 2-1, and created 2.3 xG. Martinez accounted for 0.6 xG and four shots.
With Inter being favorites in this match, it's easy to see Martinez scoring in this game.
Gabriel Martinelli to Score (+175): It's not comfortable to bet on a player to score when he has just two goals in 12 matches, but Gabriel Martinelli should have a good chance to score on Wednesday.
Martinelli scored the last time Arsenal played Sevilla two weeks ago. He had 1.4 xG total in that match -- which was in Spain. Now back at home, he should have plenty of chances to score tonight.
Sevilla have been struggling in La Liga this season. They are currently 15th in the table and have allowed the seventh-most xG.
Arsenal are -320 moneyline favorites in this game, but no one has better than +145 any time goal-scoring odds. It's likely someone from Arsenal scores in this match, and I like putting my money on Martinelli to do it.
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