Champions League Betting Picks for Wednesday 10/25/23: PSG-Milan Meet in Matchup of Giants
Match Day 3 rolls on with eight more matches on Wednesday.
When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this match day?
UCL Betting: Wednesday 10/25/23
Atletico Madrid at Celtic (3:00 P.M. EST)
Under 2.5 Goals (+106)
We'll start off Wednesday's bets with a total. It may not be fun to bet an under, but cashing a ticket is always fun in the end.
If you've paid any attention to Atletico Madrid under Diego Simeone, you know their reputation. They are known for being a physical, defensive-minded team that really limits scoring opportunities.
That's been true again this season. They are the best team in La Liga in limited expected goals (xG), per FBRef.com's model. Last year in the Champions League, they really struggled to score. They only put the ball in the back of the net five times in six group games.
They're going up against Celtic. The Glaswegian side have scored just one goal in their first two games in the group stage. Even in the Scottish Premiership, their 23 goals in nine matches isn't amazing given how much more talent they have compared to their opponents.
Both teams have fewer than two xG in the first two matches of the group stage. With Atletico's typical style -- especially away from home -- this match shouldn't see too many fireworks. The fact that we are getting plus money makes it that much more enticing.
AC Milan at Paris St-G (3:00 P.M. EST )
Paris St-G Moneyline (-140)
Two European giants in the group of death meet in Paris in a critical match in terms of qualification to the next round.
PSG suffered a 4-1 defeat on the last match day against Newcastle despite having 73% of the possession. It was a similar story when Milan played Newcastle; the Italian side created 1.9 xG and conceded just 0.3.
Despite that, Milan have not been good in that department this season. Their xG differential is only sixth in Serie A this season, and they have failed to create more than two xG in all but three of their games.
It's surprising that PSG are only third in Ligue 1 this year, but they have by far the best xG in the league. When compared to Europe's top five leagues, their xG differential per 90 minutes is the second-best.
We should see Paris be able to control this match at home, and the -140 price we have to lay isn't too large. If I'm backing a team, it's always nice to have a gamebreaker like Kylian Mbappe on my side.
Mehdi Taremi to Score (+200): One of the stars of last season for Porto, Mehdi Taremi has scored just one goal in league play this season.
He does have one goal in two group stage matches so far in the Champions League this season. This is after scoring five goals in seven Champions League games last season.
This will be the easiest matchup for Porto in the group stage against an overmatched Antwerp team. If Taremi is to find last season's group stage form, it will be in this match.
Xavi Simons to Score or Assist (-150): Xavi Simons is one of the brightest young talents across Europe and has been great in his loan spell at RB Leipzig.
Simons has seven goal contributions (goals plus assists) in eight Bundesliga matches. He's taking a share of set pieces for Leipzig, increasing the possibility of an assist.
Leipzig are huge home favorites against Crvena Zvezda. They should have plenty of the ball in this game. Crvena Zvezda is one of the weaker teams remaining in the Champions League, conceding five goals in two group stage matches.
We could see a boatload of goals for RB Leipzig, and if that's the case, Simons should get in on the act.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.