Can Kirk Cousins Be a Fantasy Football QB1 in Atlanta?

The Kirk Cousins saga never ceases to keep fantasy football managers on their toes. The long-tenured signal-caller was off to an astonishing start in 2023 before a torn Achilles put his season to a screeching halt.

The soon-to-be 36-year-old bolted from the Minnesota Vikings during free agency, inking a massive four-year, $180 million contract with the Atlanta Falcons.

How will the recovering Cousins fare with his new team in Atlanta? Utilizing FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- and FantasyPros' ADP data, let's explore Cousins' fantasy outlook for the upcoming season.

Kirk Cousins Fantasy Football Outlook

2023 Recap and Cousins' Recovery

Cousins played eight games in 2023 before his season-ending injury. He totaled 2,331 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions in this span.

At this rate, Cousins would have achieved 4,953 passing yards and 38 touchdowns in a fully healthy 17-game season. The woulda, coulda, shoulda is notable considering the eventual league leader in yards (Tua Tagovailoa) notched 4,624 yards and the league leader in touchdown passes (Dak Prescott) nabbed 36 scores.

Of course, it's far from a lock that Cousins would have been able to sustain that rate of output through 17 games. History shows us that he probably wouldn't have. But we're looking at someone who was absolutely sailing to a top-five QB finish despite coming into the season as QB14 with an overall ADP at pick 105.

For those of us who can't predict injuries, backing Cousins was the correct move in 2023. His recovery from the Achilles injury seems to have gone off without a hitch. By March he was already expected to be available for Week 1. He was a full-go in Atlanta's offseason work in May and has looked physically ready in training camp, per reports.

Whether he can live up to his shortened-yet-inspiring 2023 output remains to be seen, but he's entering a pretty fun system in Atlanta and seems to be in a good spot with the injury. Currently, Cousins is being taken off draft boards as QB19 at pick 127.

The Exciting Landscape in Atlanta

It's hard to replicate the awesome system that was in place for Cousins in Minnesota, but the Falcons are not a harsh drop-off.

Cousins won't be throwing passes to Justin Jefferson, but Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, and Bijan Robinson are an intriguing young core. Unfortunately, Rondale Moore sustained a serious lower leg injury during Atlanta's practice earlier this morning. Moore's status for this season looks iffy at best.

It's brutal to already have one pass-catcher in limbo, but London is a beast who has been waiting for a solid thrower to unleash him. Atlanta touts the sixth-ranked offensive line (via PFF) and comes in with a quality defense under new head coach Rondale Moore.

The Falcons have a win total of 9.5 with -142 odds on the over, and our Jim Sannes projects them to score the 14th-most points this season.

The team also brought in a new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson. Robinson has been with the Los Angeles Rams since 2019, learning under Sean McVay. It's easy to picture Cousins finding success in that style of offense, all while continuing to play his home games indoors.

Kirk Cousins Fantasy Football Projection

FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections expect Cousins to manage 4,218 passing yards, 29.3 touchdowns, and 10.3 interceptions in a full 17-game season.

His passing prop is set at 3,800.5 yards, per FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds. Based on the per-game pace of our projections, Cousins would need to play 15.3 games in order to clear the over on his passing yards. He nabbed more than 4,000 yards in seven out of eight years from 2015 to 2022.

All in all, our projections forecast Cousins to log 291.28 fantasy points, stamping him as QB18. Notably, our projections have him out-doing Aaron Rodgers, who is currently being drafted ahead of Cousins. They also have Cousins trailing Trevor Lawrence (QB17 ADP), Justin Herbert (QB16 ADP), and Jared Goff (QB12 ADP) by just five or fewer points.

When a player is returning from a major injury and joining a new team, there will be some uncertainties. But Cousins' status has looked on the up-and-up for a while, and Atlanta has laid the grounds for him to succeed. If he stays healthy, Cousins will likely reward fantasy managers who draft him.

Cousins has QB1 (top-12) upside if things break right, and he's a rock-solid QB2 in two-quarterback formats.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.