Can Joe Burrow Be Fantasy's QB1 Despite a Lack of Rushing Upside?

Joe Burrow has managed to get better in each of his NFL seasons -- both in real life and fantasy.

The former first overall pick has been given the tools around him to succeed at the highest levels, and he isn't passing that up. Another year older means another year wiser, and Burrow is capable of taking another step forward in 2023.

Can that step forward push him from a solid QB1 to the overall QB1?

Joe Burrow Fantasy Football Projection

(Projections via numberFire)

2023 Projected Stats: 4,627 passing yards, 33.5 passing TDs, 13.1 INTs, 266 rushing yards, 2.6 rushing TDs
2023 Projected Points: 331.7 points
numberFire Positional Projection: QB5

Joe Burrow Fantasy Football Outlook

Superstar Season

Burrow followed up his Super Bowl LVI appearance with the best season of his career -- securing his spot as one of the league's best passers.

Burrow put up 4,475 passing yards and a career-high 35 passing touchdowns to lead Cincinnati to a 12-4 record. He added 257 yards on the ground and 5 rushing touchdowns for good measure. This allowed Burrow to finish with 350.7 fantasy points, averaging 21.9 points per game -- both of which were good for fourth-best among quarterbacks last season.

He rated out well by advanced metrics, too, ranking in the top 10 in adjusted yards per attempt (7.6), passer rating (100.8) and QBR (58.7).

The impressive counting stats, mind you, come with the Bengals losing a game due to the Damar Hamlin situation as well Burrow's number-one option, Ja'Marr Chase, missing four games due to injury. In those four games, Burrow had just one outing of more than 20 fantasy points, including a dud of 13.5 points in his first game without Chase.

This isn't to say that Burrow can't succeed without Chase; it's more imagining what the numbers could have been had the two-time Pro Bowler not missed a game -- let alone four. It only plays to how good Burrow's season was last year and why 2023 feels like an opportunity for him to put up even gaudier numbers.

Weapons Galore

Burrow may have the best weapons of any quarterback in the NFL.

It's best to begin with Chase, who has taken the league by storm in his first two seasons. The LSU duo instantly became one of the premier combinations in the league and should continue to be that in 2023.

Burrow also has Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd out wide. Higgins could arguably be a top receiver for many teams in the league but has settled into a number-two role behind Chase, giving Burrow a potent one-two punch at receiver. Boyd is one of the better third options out there.

Also returning to the Bengals will be running back Joe Mixon. Mixon just restructured his contract and took a pay cut to remain with the team, meaning that the 26-year-old lead-back will be able to take some pressure off of Burrow as he has the last two seasons. The Bengals' runner has three seasons of at least 1,000 rushing yards and is coming off his best receiving effort, a year where he tallied 60 receptions.

On top of all that, Cincy also gave Burrow some help up front by signing tackle Orlando Brown Jr. Offensive line has been a weakness of this Bengals team for much of Burrow's tenure. In 2022, Burrow had the second-shortest average time to throw (2.55 seconds), per the NFL's Next-Gen Stats. Brown should provide a big upgrade, and PFF ranks Cincy's O-Line 17th in the league. That's not amazing, but it's 11 spots ahead of where it ranked to end 2022.

Can a Pocket QB Be the QB1 in 2023?

In a league that has seen a surge of mobile quarterbacks thrive in fantasy, it is really tough for a signal-caller who doesn't offer big-time upside as a runner to finish as the QB1.

The three quarterbacks ahead of Burrow a year ago -- Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen -- each had at least 350 rushing yards. Despite how great Allen and Hurts are as runners, it was Mahomes who finished as the QB1 last year.

Mahomes' 2022 is a good prototype for what a Burrow QB1 season would likely need to look like.

Similar to Mahomes, Burrow doesn't do too much running but also isn't a zero in the rushing department -- 257 rushing yards and 5 running touchdowns last year. Mahomes did a little more on the ground last season, racking up 358 rushing yards and 4 rushing scores, but his bread and butter is his truly elite passing totals.

In 2022, Mahomes finished with 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdowns in 17 games. It was a special season. Burrow likely needs that kind of stat line to be the QB1 in this current quarterback landscape, and while he'll need some luck to get there -- especially in the touchdown department -- Burrow is capable of it if his weapons stay healthy. Plus, with an improved offensive line in front of him, Burrow might have a ceiling we haven't yet seen.

Finishing as the QB1 isn't likely, but it's definitely within Burrow's range of outcomes.

Final Verdict

According to numberFire's projections, Burrow is ranked as the QB5, trailing the three aforementioned signal-callers -- Mahomes, Allen and Hurts -- as well as Lamar Jackson, another quarterback who offers elite rushing upside.

Per FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP) data, Burrow sits as the QB4 and is going off the board 36th overall, a whole round after Hurts, who is the QB3. FanDuel's best-ball leagues have Burrow sitting with a 26.3 ADP as the QB4.

Burrow has the ability, weapons and overall situation to be an elite fantasy quarterback, and if some things go his way -- namely a big year in the TD department -- he could even push for the QB1 mantle despite not offering the rushing juice of some of the other elites at the position.

If you miss out on Mahomes, Hurts and Allen or don't want to spend a super-early pick to get them, Burrow is a great fallback option. Wait (a little bit) on him, take him, and enjoy what may be an even bigger season from "Joe Cool."

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.