Best NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Bets for the Slim Jim 200 in Martinsville

When you're building a betting model, and your results are way off the market, it's important to ask, "What am I missing?"

Markets tend to be efficient, so when you have numbers that deviate wildly, it's more likely you're wrong than the market.

I've asked that question around my model for Friday's NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race in Martinsville as there's a driver I'm waaaaay higher on than FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Truck Series betting odds. And while I do think my model is too high, I still feel pretty confident that the market is too low.

Let's start with showing those sims, and then we can delve into the driver who is a big value, why the market's lower, and why I still think he's a great bet.

NASCAR Truck Series Predictions for Martinsville

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Picks for Martinsville

• Chandler Smith (+1600): Here are some reasons the market is lower on Smith:
  • He's no longer in the playoffs, and this is the final cutoff before the championship
  • His teammate, Layne Riggs, is below the cutline, meaning the team will prioritize Riggs
  • The model is likely too low -- without considering playoffs -- on both Riggs and Corey Heim

• Thus, I do think 15.7% is higher than it should be for Smith. Still, he's elite on short tracks, having won both Bristol and North Wilkesboro this year while finishing second in New Hampshire during the playoffs. He was third in both Xfinity Series races at Martinsville last year, showing that does translate to this track, and he was fourth in the Truck race here during the spring. While 15.7% is too high, I think 5.9% implied odds is also too low, so Smith is a great bet despite the justifiable reasons the market is lower than I am.

• Kaden Honeycutt (+1700): The playoff bullet points for Smith don't translate to Honeycutt, who is currently the last driver advancing and has no teammates to worry about. He has had good speed at short tracks since joining Halmar Friesen Racing with top-nine average running positions in Richmond, Bristol, and New Hampshire but doesn't have the results to show for it. Long-term, I'm bullish on Honeycutt with Toyota, so I don't mind giving him a spin at +1700 here.
• Ben Rhodes (+4500): Rhodes was runner-up in this race last year, one of six career top-5s at Martinsville in 16 races. He has finished top-five this year in Martinsville and both Bristol races (including a runner-up in the fall Bristol race), so the short track skills are still there. He'll have to navigate around having a teammate -- Ty Majeski -- in the playoffs, but +4500 over-accounts for that.

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Which drivers stand out to you for tonight's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Truck Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.