Australian Open Quarterfinals Betting Guide: Monday 1/22/24

The Australian Open is into the second week, and we should be treated to some fantastic matches in the coming days.

What better way to get in on the action than by making wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which quarterfinals matches could have the most betting value on Monday.

Australian Open Best Bets

Novak Djokovic vs. Taylor Fritz

Djokovic 3-0 Sets (-120)

It's often difficult to find value backing Novak Djokovic because he's nearly always a heavy favorite, but this might be the right timing and matchup to predict a straight-sets victory.

While Djokovic hasn't been flawless thus far -- he dropped a set in each of the first two rounds -- he's coming off an absolute beatdown of World No. 19 Adrian Mannarino, steamrolling the Frenchman 6-0, 6-0, 6-3 in one hour and 44 minutes. Any concerns about Novak's wrist or what he's calling a "regular viral infection" have quickly evaporated as he continues to look stronger with every match.

Taylor Fritz is certainly no slouch and is fresh off a quality win over World No. 7 Stefanos Tsitsipas. Fritz pushed Djokovic five sets in their last Australian Open encounter in 2021, so an upset bid can't be completely ruled out.

However, the fact remains that Fritz is 0-8 against Novak in his career, and most of their matches since that five-setter haven't been particularly close. Over their last five meetings, the American hasn't won a single set, and that includes a pair of one-sided losses in 2023 at Cincinnati (6-0, 6-4) and the US Open (6-1, 6-4, 6-4).

According to Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Djokovic is projected for an 86.1% win probability. As impressive as that is, it's not even as high as his implied odds as a -1050 favorite (91.3%). A locked-in Djokovic is a frightening prospect for any opponent, let alone one who's found little to no success in their head-to-head.

Jannik Sinner vs. Andrey Rublev

Sinner -5.5 Games (-132)

It feels a little cruel to predict yet another major quarterfinal loss for Andrey Rublev -- he's 0-9 in his career -- but I'm not sure he can keep pace with an in-form Jannik Sinner.

Sinner is on that ever-so-short list of contenders who could realistically give Djokovic a run for his money, and he's looked the part through four rounds, winning every single set. Over the last 52 weeks, he's amassed an absurd 40-7 record on hard courts (85.1%), and his finish to last season was littered with wins over top-10 opponents, including Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Mededev, Holger Rune -- and Rublev.

The road to these quarters hasn't been quite as smooth sailing for Rublev, who needed five sets to take out World No. 10 Alex De Minaur in the fourth round. Not only did Rublev have to claw back from down two sets to one, but he faced 16 break points and managed to save 13 of them. While the Russian deserves credit for digging deep -- he actually won the fifth set 6-0 -- it's pretty clear that Sinner will be the fresher of the two.

Sinner leads the head-to-head 4-2 and bested Rublev in straight sets in both of their 2023 matchups (Miami and Vienna).

Tennis Abstract projects the Italian to win this meeting 78.4% of the time. He's covered this spread in each of his first four matches, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him make it five in a row.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.