AL Rookie of the Year Odds: Luis Gil is the Odds-On Favorite

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
AL Rookie of the Year Odds: Luis Gil is the Odds-On Favorite

Of all the MLB accolades and awards, the annual Rookie of the Year races provide excitement for both the present and future.

The AL's Rookie of the Year odds are one-sided at the moment, but with approximately half of the regular season still left to play, there is much to be decided.

New York Yankees rookie pitcher Luis Gil has been extremely tough to square up in the current campaign. The 26-year-old hurler has already compiled 9 wins over 15 starts this year. Playing in the Big Apple, Gil has thrived under Gotham's pressure.

Entering Tuesday, Gil is the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 AL ROY award. However, they play 162 games for a reason. Is there another player who can challenge over the next three months?

To start the final week of June, let's dive into the AL ROY betting market, highlighting the authentic contenders.

All MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Luis Gil-120
Wilyer Abreu+420
Mason Miller+500
Wyatt Langford+1000
Colton Cowser+1100
Ceddane Rafaela+1100
David Hamilton+3200
View Full Table

2024 AL Rookie of the Year Odds

Luis Gil, SP, Yankees (-120)

Notably, Luis Gil has been one of the top arms in baseball this season. Throughout 81.1 IP in 2024, Gil currently boasts a sharp 3.85 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He's also been a FanDuel DFS darling, logging 10.73 K/9.

As it is now, Gil is the best starter on the American League's top team. Additionally, playing baseball in NYC will always give added media attention. According to Statcast, he is allowing 33.5% hard-contact rate, which is extremely low for anyone -- much less a rook.

A traditional hurler has not been named AL ROY since Michael Fulmer in 2016 (Shohei Ohtani won in 2018). Regardless, Gil is listed with -120 odds to win AL Rookie of the Year at FanDuel Sportsbook. That translates to a 54.5% implied probability in this market.

Wilyer Abreu, OF, Red Sox (+420)

Having just turned 25-years old, outfielder Wilyer Abreu of Boston Red Sox is steadily climbing up the ROTY board. Abreu's .805 OPS is undoubtedly good, but can he shine bright enough over the remaining games to overtake his rival in New York?

For an elephant in the room here, Abreu recently missed three weeks with an ankle injury. The lefty returned to action on June 22nd, and since, the BoSox have not lost. That's certainly positive for Abreu's case!

Abreu has compiled a .349 wOBA, which is one of this year's best clips for rooks with more than 55 games played. Additionally, he is boasting the highest wins above replacement (2.4 WAR) among American League rookies. With that in mind, perhaps Abreu has value at +420 odds to win the award.

Mason Miller, RP, Athletics (+500)

For one of the few optimistic storylines presently surrounding the Oakland Athletics, closer Mason Miller is a certified fireballer. If you need a silver-screen comparison, think Ricky Vaughn from Major League (1989) but with far superior command.

Regularly lighting up radar guns, Miller has been nearly unhittable behind a 15.58 K/9 rate. As Oakland's closer, he's thrown 34.2 innings to this point, collecting 14 saves in 16 opportunities.

According to Baseball Savant, Miller -- who has already notched 60 punchies -- is the only qualified hurler in 2024 averaging over 100 MPH (100.8) on his four-seam fastball. Comparatively, Miller's splitter has been unfair this season at 97.6 MPH. In all, he's posted a hyper-stingy 1.61 SIERA.

Miller is currently tagged with five-to-one odds to be named 2024 AL Rookie of the Year. For reference, a closing pitcher has not cashed this market since Neftalí Féliz did in 2010. Féliz reached 40 saves and 71 Ks that season.

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