AL Cy Young Odds: Tarik Skubal Emerges From the Pack

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
AL Cy Young Odds: Tarik Skubal Emerges From the Pack

Gerrit Cole's UCL injury has really shaken up the American League Cy Young this season. Last season's AL Cy Young winner has yet to make his season debut, which has effectively taken him out of the race as he currently carries +20000 odds for the award.

The award race has three primary contenders so far, two of which have never finished among the top five in Cy Young voting. The other contender among the top three shortest odds is a former Cy Young winner chasing his second trophy.

So which starting pitchers have separated themselves from the crowd? Here are the latest AL Cy Young lines, per FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds.

AL Cy Young Odds

American League Cy Young 2024
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Tarik Skubal+260
Corbin Burnes+440
Pablo Lopez+700
Luis Castillo+1200
Cole Ragans+1900
Logan Gilbert+2500
Joe Ryan+3000
View Full Table

Tarik Skubal (+260)

Before the 2024 season, the Detroit Tigers' Tarik Skubal had the fifth-shortest odds to win the AL Cy Young (+1000). He enjoyed a breakout 2023 season with a 2.56 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 0.90 WHIP. Entering his fifth season in the majors, it felt like only a matter of time before Skubal would establish himself as one of the AL's premier starters.

The Tigers' hurler has done exactly that as he carries the lowest odds to win the Cy Young award (+260). Through eight starts, Skubal has a 2.02 ERA, 2.56 SIERA, and 0.86 WHIP. All three categories are on pace for career-highs, and he holds several stats that are atop the AL. In the American League, Skubal's WHIP is the lowest, opponents are batting .189 against him (fifth-lowest), his 2.02 ERA is the second-lowest, and he has the second-best record at 5-0.

Several Baseball Savant stats continue to hammer home Skubal's legit campaign for a Cy Young award. This includes ranking in the 98th percentile of pitching run value, 96th percentile of expected ERA (xERA), 90th percentile of strikeout percentage (K%), and 91st percentile of walk percentage (BB%).

You get the point; Skubal has been elite by nearly all accounts.

Corbin Burnes (+440)

As previously mentioned, we have one former Cy Young winner in the thick of this race, and it's Corbin Burnes of the Baltimore Orioles. Burnes has been a familiar face in the Cy Young race, finishing among the top eight contenders in four consecutive seasons.

In 2021, Burnes won his Cy Young award with a 2.43 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Let's compare these numbers to his numbers this season. Burnes currently holds a 2.68 ERA and 1.006 WHIP, which isn't far off his Cy Young season.

Advanced stats are a different story, though. His SIERA was 2.61 in 2021 compared to 3.51 right now. Burnes' K% is a similar case, as it was 35.6% in 2021 and currently sits at only 23.3%.

He's played well thus far, but Burnes will likely need to do more to pass Skubal. Detroit's starter has much more impressive advanced stats. Burnes' biggest supporting factor could be his presence on a contending team as the Orioles have the fourth-shortest odds to win the World Series (+1100).

Pablo Lopez (+700)

Skubal has never made an All-Star appearance or earned Cy Young votes. While Pablo Lopez has yet to come close to a Cy Young, he finished seventh in voting for the award last season while earning his first All-Star appearance. Lopez continues to climb the ranks with more impressive stats in 2024.

While Lopez's ERA has risen from 3.66 to 3.89 this season, his WHIP has improved from 1.15 to 0.98. Advanced stats can hold more weight, and Lopez passes this with flying colors. In 2023, Lopez logged a 3.37 SIERA and 29.2 K%. These numbers have surged to a 2.61 SIERA and 31.6 K%. This puts him in the 90th percentile of K%, and the SIERA is over 0.75 less than Lopez's career-high.

It's probably safe to say Minnesota's starter is headed to another All-Star season, but are his numbers enough to earn a Cy Young award? Lopez will likely need to improve his 3.89 ERA and 4-2 record. His advanced stats are elite, but the ERA and record are pedestrian by Cy Young standards.

Skubal has emerged as the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. Burnes and Lopez are pushing for the award, but Skubal has the best resume thus far with impressive marks in nearly every meaningful stat.

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