4 Longshot Bets Who Could Lead Baseball in Steals in 2024

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin

Before the 2023 MLB season, the league altered some rules that benefitted base-runners tremendously, which led to a seismic increase in stolen bases. Aside from the pitch clock and limiting pitchers to stepping off the mound just twice each plate appearance, the bases were also enlarged.

The rule changes led to six players recording 40-plus stolen bases in 2023, with the league leader -- Ronald Acuna Jr. -- stealing 73 bases. All 30 teams in baseball combined to have an 80% stolen-base percentage last year, putting that number five percentage points higher than the 2022 campaign.

With spring training already underway, our very own Aidan Cotter has looked at the top contenders to lead the majors in stolen bases this season. But what about the players who are considered longshots to swipe the most bags?

By looking at the MLB stolen bases leader odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, let's discuss some of my favorite longshot bets for the upcoming campaign.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless otherwise stated.

MLB Longshot Stolen Base Leader Odds

Here are 17 players with +3500 odds or longer to record the most regular-season stolen bases in 2024.

Stolen Bases Leader Odds
Julio Rodriguez+3500
Nico Hoerner+4200
Trea Turner+4500
Jarren Duran+6000
Fernando Tatis Jr.+6000
Michael Harris II+6000
Tommy Edman+6000
View Full Table

Julio Rodriguez (+3500)

First up in this article is none other than Julio Rodriguez of the Seattle Mariners. The extremely talented youngster on the Mariners has been fantastic in his first two seasons, logging 32 HRs, 103 RBIs, and 37 SBs in 714 plate appearances just last year.

Of his 714 plate appearances a season ago, 617 of them came in either the leadoff or second spot in the lineup. Therefore, we should expect Rodriguez to bat at or near the top of the order again for Seattle this season.

Getting on base is crucial for stealing bases, and Rodriguez recorded a solid .333 on-base percentage (OBP) and a .347 weighted on-base average (wOBA) in 2023. The speedy outfielder also converted 79% of his stolen-base opportunities and registered the 11th-fastest sprint speed (29.6) in all of baseball last season.

Rodriguez dealt with a foot issue down the stretch last year, which limited him to only two stolen bases throughout September. With Rodriguez healthy and slated for a massive role for the Mariners again in 2024, there's a chance he can lead the entire league in stolen bases.

Trea Turner (+4500)

The Philadelphia Phillies signed Trea Turner to an 11-year, $300 million contract before the 2023 campaign began, and he got off to a slow start with his new team. The veteran shortstop posted an underwhelming .299 OBP and 19 SBs in 395 plate appearances in the first half, but he would reel off a .348 OBP and 11 SBs in 296 plate appearances in the second half.

After Turner found his footing to end the 2023 campaign, I'm betting on a bounce-back season from him in 2024. Even though Turner is 30 years old, he still had the third-fastest sprint speed (30.3) in MLB a season ago, proving that he can still run the basepaths with ease.

For the first time in his career, Turner also converted 100% of his stolen-base opportunities last year. Turner spent 509 of his 691 plate appearances hitting out of the two-hole in 2023, and there's a good chance he's hitting either leadoff or second to begin this season.

Seeing that the Phillies totaled the seventh-most SBs (141) in 2023, it's clear they want to take advantage of the rule changes. Following a back-and-forth debut season for Turner, look for him to put his speed to use even more in 2024.

Jarren Duran (+6000)

After discussing two household names who can be dark-horse picks to be the league leader in steals, Jarren Duran is an interesting player to target in this market.

In his third MLB season, Duran showed flashes of being a solid contributor for the Boston Red Sox. Across 362 plate appearances in 2023, Duran tallied a .346 OBP, .354 wOBA, and 24 SBs. What helped Duran a decent bit last season was the fact he decreased his strikeout rate from 28.3% in 2022 to 24.9% in 2023.

With Alex Verdugo being traded to the New York Yankees this offseason, manager Alex Cora has already revealed that Duran will be the leadoff hitter for the Red Sox to begin the 2024 campaign. Duran had 24 SBs in limited plate appearances last season, and he converted an impressive 92% of his stolen-base chances.

The 27-year-old left-handed outfielder will want to lower his strikeout rate to lefties (30.6% in 2023) if he wants to remain an everyday player for Boston this season. An increase in plate opportunities and batting in front of Rafael Devers should lead to more steals for the player with the 12th-fastest sprint speed (29.5) last year.

Ha-Seong Kim (+12000)

Ha-Seong Kim isn't the fastest player -- he had the 60th-fastest sprint speed (28.5) in 2023 -- but he is someone that should be on everyone's radar entering the 2024 season. After playing seven years in the KBO, Kim has spent the last three seasons with the San Diego Padres.

Kim earned a prominent role for the Padres a season ago, which led to him posting career-best marks in plate appearances (626), wOBA (.330), OBP (.398), and SBs (38). The 28-year-old infielder also notched a 12.0% walk rate and 335 of his 626 plate appearances came from the leadoff spot.

Following the departure of Juan Soto via trade, Kim should maintain a top spot in San Diego's batting order. The Padres have also announced that Kim will be moving to shortstop and Xander Bogaerts will be switching to second base, so playing time shouldn't be an issue for Kim.

Considering that Kim recorded an 81% stolen-base percentage in 2023, there is room for him to perform even better when given the green light to steal. Following a year where he had the seventh-most steals in all of baseball, there is solid value at these odds (+12000) for Kim to finish with the most SBs.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.