3 Strikeout Props to Target for Tuesday 7/2/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Kutter Crawford Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-138)

The Boston Red Sox's Kutter Crawford is on a strikeout hot streak that's worth backing. He has totaled 24 Ks over his previous three games, which is good for 8.0 strikeouts each outing.

After finishing with the 8th-lowest strikeout percentage (K%) in 2023, the Miami Marlins have the 15th-highest strikeout rate this season. They've also totaled at least nine Ks in three of their last four games -- well above their season-long average of 8.0 strikeouts.

Crawford is rolling and facing the Marlins at an ideal time. His success typically starts and ends with his four-seam fastball, which touts Crawford's highest usage rate at 33.7% paired with his highest strikeout rate (33.1%). Meanwhile, Miami totals the second-fewest runs above average when facing fastballs.

Keep in mind that the Marlins have the second-fewest runs scored and the lowest on-base percentage (OBP). This points to a deep start for Crawford, which possibly leads to even more strikeouts.

Reynaldo Lopez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)

Many pitchers across MLB rely on a nasty breaking ball for their strikeouts. It's often live or die by this pitch when it comes to their strikeout prop. This is the case for Reynaldo Lopez of the Atlanta Braves.

Lopez mostly deploys two pitches -- his four-seam fastball (56.8%) and slider (28.4%). The slider carries a 39.6 K% compared to the fastball's 21.0% strikeout rate. Lopez's slider has 2.9 inches more vertical movement than the league average.

If the slider is working, expect Lopez to have K success as the pitch carries a 45.8% whiff rate. Today's opponent -- the San Francisco Giants -- have the ninth-fewest runs above average when facing sliders.

FanDuel Research's projections also have Lopez at 7.08 strikeouts. The Braves' starter has gone over 5.5 Ks in four of his previous five starts. Give me the over.

Dylan Cease Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-118)

Taking under 6.5 strikeouts for Dylan Cease could be considered going against grain. Cease is in the top 8% of strikeout rate, averaging 7.6 strikeouts per start in June, and he totaled 19 Ks over his last two appearances. FanDuel Research's projections even have Cease at 7.7 strikeouts for tonight's meeting with the Texas Rangers.

So, why go under for the San Diego Padres' ace?

Texas doesn't strikeout often with the sixth-lowest K%. They already have the sixth-fewest Ks per game at 7.6, and over the last three contests, the Rangers are posting 6.7 strikeouts each game. For comparison, San Diego averages the fewest Ks in MLB at 6.7.

Cease has consistently made batters look silly thanks to his slider (38.7 K%). Texas is around the middle of the league with the 14th-most runs above average against this pitch. The righty also depends on his 32.8% whiff rate (94th percentile). The Rangers have an answer, carrying the 10th-lowest swinging-strike rate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.