3 Strikeout Props to Target for Thursday 6/27/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-136)

Zack Wheeler is among the league's top 10 leaders with 107 strikeouts, which is good for an average of about 6.7 per start. However, the Philadelphia Phillies' ace is down to only 5.5 Ks each start over four outings in June. This stretch also includes two appearances with a measly four strikeouts.

Thursday's matchup against the Miami Marlins could be a bit difficult to gauge. Miami's K numbers haven't really stood out for good or bad with a 22.0% strikeout percentage (K%) -- the 15th-highest mark. This requires a deep dive to find which side to take.

Wheeler's pitch usage suggests the over. His highest strikeout rates are held by his four-seam fastball (25.9%), sinker (25.8%), and sweeper (33.3%). The Marlins have the second-lowest runs above average against fastballs, the sixth-lowest against sinkers, and the second-lowest when seeing sliders.

One of Wheeler's big strengths has been his 32.4% chase rate (86th percentile), and Miami has the highest chase percentage in baseball.

The Marlins struggle against Wheeler's best stuff while regularly chasing pitches outside of the strike zone. This gives me enough comfort to take the over, especially with FanDuel Research's projections giving Wheeler 7.69 Ks for tonight.

Jose Berrios Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)

The New York Yankees are tied for the 10th-lowest K%, and Jose Berrios is in the bottom 17% of strikeout rate. Pair the two and a low strikeout total should be imminent for the Toronto Blue Jays' starting pitcher.

Berrios will put this theory to the test in his clash with the Yankees tonight. We won't end it here, though. Let's jump into more evidence that backs under 4.5 Ks.

Simply looking at recent starts for the veteran righty could do the trick. Berrios is totaling only 2.5 strikeouts per start in June and reached four Ks in only one of four appearances this month.

If that's not enough, we have even more stats on deck. When Berrios does get his strikeout game going, it's usually from making opposing batters chase. He's in the bottom 14% of whiff rate versus the top 34% for chase percentage. New York has the answer with the second-lowest chase rate in MLB.

Additionally, the Yanks have the third-highest isolated power (ISO) while Berrios is in the bottom 24% in hard-hit percentage. He's also surrendered seven homers over his last four appearances, and New York has the second-highest home run percentage. The Yankees' slugging could cause a brief start, which once again points to under 4.5 Ks.

Jack Flaherty Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-156)

Our final prop of the day is carried by another one of MLB's top K pitchers. Jack Flaherty has the eighth-most strikeouts in baseball at 108 -- good for an average of 7.7 per start.

Taking the over for Flaherty would simply require the 28-year-old pitcher to produce at his season-long average. He's logged 7.3 Ks each appearance since May (seven starts during this span). His production has not faded, but is the matchup present against the Los Angeles Angels?

Several of the Angels' stats don't really tip this pick to either side. For example, Los Angeles is tied for the 13th-highest K% and the 14th-highest swinging-strike percentage. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers' ace is in the 95th percentiles of whiff rate and K%. The Angels are in the middle of the pack for each category, which doesn't suggest either side.

When Flaherty has reached the sixth inning, he's totaled at least seven strikeouts in five straight appearances. Perhaps this could be the key to unlocking the over.

A deep start looks likely against the Angels, who have the 6th-fewest runs scored, the 12th-lowest batting average, and the 7th-lowest on-base percentage (OBP). Flaherty is in the top 36% of ground-ball percentage while L.A. has the 6th-highest ground-ball percentage. We could see Flaherty dealing for a while, providing our strongest support for 6.5 strikeouts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.