3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Friday 5/3/24

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Tanner Houck Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+116)

Tanner Houck is off to a superb start this season. He's got a 2.62 SIERA and 26.5% strikeout rate. He's amassed at least seven punchouts in four of his six starts, with three outings of at least nine Ks.

But there are a few reasons I like the under on Houck's strikeout total today.

While Houck has been really good, he's also been a little lucky in the strikeout department.

His swinging-strike rate of 12.9% is exactly the same as his swinging-strike rates from -- no joke -- each of the last two seasons. Those two campaigns resulted in K rates of 22.7% and 21.4% -- a ways down from his 26.5% strikeout rate so far this season.

Also, his matchup with the Minnesota Twins isn't as great for Ks as it may look at first glance.

Minnesota's season-long strikeout rate is up there, but they've really cut back on the punchouts of late as they've tweaked their lineup and put more of their lefty-hitting platoon guys -- hitters such as Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff -- higher in the order. Since April 14th, the Twins' strikeout rate is only 21.8%, just the 18th-highest.

Our model has Houck projected for 5.2 strikeouts. With plus-money odds on the under, that's the side I'll be on.

Charlie Morton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Admittedly, it is terrifying to take a strikeout over versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their offense is so great that they can explode and make it a short night for any pitcher.

With that said, I'm backing Charlie Morton to record at least six punchouts today at Dodger Stadium.

The Dodgers -- as elite as they are offensively -- are striking out at roughly a league-average clip, sporting a 22.9% strikeout rate, so they've got a decent amount of swing and miss in their lineup.

In his age-40 season, Morton is still getting it done, pitching to a 3.88 SIERA and 23.3% strikeout rate. He's also been allowed to throw up to 101 pitches in a game this year, so the leash and workload aid the over's outlook.

Our model sides with the over, as well, as we project Morton to get 6.3 punchouts tonight in LA.

Ryan Weathers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-111)

Through his first 29 2/3 innings this season, Ryan Weathers is showing signs of improvement. His 4.67 SIERA, 18.7% strikeout rate and 10.8% swinging-strike rate are all better marks than what he produced in 2023.

Now, those numbers still aren't all that great, but I'm intrigued by this bet tonight in Weathers' matchup with the Oakland Athletics.

Oakland stinks offensively. They're 22nd in wOBA (.285) against lefties with the eighth-highest K rate (25.2%) in the split. At home, Oakland's K rate climbs to 26.3%, and their wOBA falls to .281. In short, this is a stellar matchup for Weathers.

Weathers has generated a single-game swinging-strike rate of at least 11.5% in four of his six outings this season. In those four high-whiff starts, he's punched out at least five in three of them.

Both our model and the market have this as a toss-up -- the under is a slight -115 favorite -- but I'm willing to roll the dice on an improved Weathers coming through in this soft matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.