3 NFL Wild Card Prop Bets for Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs

It's Super Wild Card Weekend, which means NFL fans will be treated to three days of playoff action -- featuring two games on Saturday, three on Sunday, and a Monday night special to close it out. Some of the NFL's finest will be out in force as they vie for a Super Bowl title.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations. All betting numbers come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs: Spread, Moneyline and Total

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Spread: Chiefs -4.5
• Moneyline:
  • Dolphins +194
  • Chiefs -235
• Total: 44.5 (-102/-120)

Miami Dolphins-Kansas City Chiefs Overview

Another Wild Card game with a prevalent reunion, the Miami Dolphins (11-6) and Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) will battle it out on the gridiron for the second time this season.

With the Week 9 head-to-head bid taking place in Germany, this Saturday will be superstar receiver Tyreek Hill's inaugural trip to Arrowhead Stadium as a member of a different franchise. When matched up with his former team a couple months back, "Cheetah" was held in check, logging 62 yards with a lost fumble.

Undoubtedly, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Kansas City head coach Andy Reid will put away any feelings of nostalgia until after the game clock reads 00:00. The Chiefs did well to win their (record) eighth-straight AFC West title. Still, the reigning Super Bowl champions are experiencing an offensive fall from grace -- KC's 2023 scoring rate of 21.8 points per game (PPG) is their lowest clip in over a decade (2012).

When we saw these same sides in Frankfurt, neither played their cleanest game. In a contest that did not provide the anticipated offensive output (the total was set north of 50 points), Kansas City outlasted the 'Fins by a narrow score of 21-14. This time around on Super Wild Card Weekend, Miami and K.C. will meet to see who marches on.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs: Prop Bets

Patrick Mahomes Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-114)

It may initially feel unwise to bet against "Showtime" Mahomes in the playoffs. Still, we should first address the elephant in the room -- Saturday night's game temperature at Arrowhead is expected to be in the negative degrees. Already, that will make amassing 253 passing yards no small feat.

So, there are actually two elephants in Kansas City's room. Notably, the receiving corps was subject to heavy scrutiny in the media this year. Of course, the criticism was deserved, as the Chiefs combined for 44 dropped passes -- most of any team in 2023.

After six campaigns as a starter in the NFL, Mahomes' recent 4,183 passing yards (261.4 per game) were his second-lowest annual total. Additionally, the two-time MVP has seen a spike in interceptions. Mahomes finished the recent regular season with 14 picks, the most of his seven-year career.

One final note: when "Mahomeboy" went at Miami on international soil earlier in the campaign, he managed just 174 yards through the air. With everything considered, I am banking on No. 15 throwing for less than 252 yards this Saturday.

Raheem Mostert Any Time TD Scorer (+140)

Nearing age 32, Raheem Mostert is somehow still one of the fastest players in the NFL. In his ninth professional season, the tailback from Purdue managed a 43-yard rushing score wherein he reached 21.62 MPH (10th-fastest ball-carrier speed of the year, according to NFL Next Gen Stats).

Mostert had brilliant production in 2023. In head coach Mike McDaniel's offense (the two spent time together with the San Francisco 49ers), Mostert has found the end zone on 21 occasions this season. Naturally, that has more than doubled his previous single-season high.

For reference, Mostert's 21 total tuddies -- 18 rushing TDs plus 3 receiving scores -- were tied with 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey for the regular-season touchdown crown. Pertaining to Raheem "The Dream," he appeared in 15 games this year, crossing the goal line in all but three contests -- I love his +140 odds here.

Speaking of TD scores, FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty to explore in the Wild Card Specials market. If you think every team competing in the postseason's opening round -- Cleveland, Houston, Miami, KC, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Green Bay, Dallas, Los Angeles, Detroit, Philly and Tampa Bay -- will score at least one touchdown of any kind this weekend, we have that market available at -130 odds.

Tua Tagovailoa Over 5.5 Rushing Yards (-122)

As golfers, hoopers or pool players can attest to, there is beauty in the short game. In terms of Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's rushing prop for this Saturday evening, that is exactly the sort of short approach we are taking.

Transparently, Tagovailoa has not accumulated more than 15 rushing yards in any single game this season, but we are asking him to go over only a third of that. With a rushing prop of just 5.5 yards, Tua can obviously accomplish this small feat on any offensive snap for Miami.

With sub-zero temperatures on hand in Kansas City, we could see the Alabama alum log a couple more carries than he typically would. In 2023, Tagovailoa has seen as many as six carries in a contest (which should be sufficient to clear 5.5 yards). Additionally, he has gone over 5.5 rushing yards in back-to-back weeks.

I think this makes even more sense if Miami gets behind, resulting in more Tua drop backs and potential scrambles.

With football's postseason finally here, the NFL Playoffs No Sweat Same Game Parlay is eligible for any Super Wild Card game played on Saturday, January 13th. This exclusive promotion can be applied to any SGP/SGP+ wager of three or more legs that also totals +400 odds or longer -- if your qualified bet loses, get a refund! For all stipulations, visit the promotions page at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.