3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 18
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Chris Olave
Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Any Time Touchdown (+175)
A playoff-type game between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons should bring us one of the best games of the weekend.
It's Week 18 of the NFL season, and teams have varying levels of motivation, ranging from already eliminated to fully clinched. However, there is a jumbled middle group of teams that need to win -- and potentially need some help.
The jumbled middle group is what have between the Saints and the Falcons, two teams that need to win and get a bit of help in order to make the playoffs. They have full motivation to play their starters and do everything they can to win.
There's no time for nonsense and that means getting the ball to the team's best player, which would be Chris Olave for the Saints.
This season, Olave comes in with a team-high 25.7% target share, 40.1% air yard share, and 19.7% red zone target share. Add in a solid 13.2 aDOT (average depth of target) and Olave has been the clear top option in the Saints' offense this season.
When we look at the Saints overall this week, it has to be noted that running back, Alvin Kamara, did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. If Kamara isn't able to play or isn't 100%, the Saints would have Jamaal Williams and potentially Kendre Miller to man the backfield.
Considering the Falcons are in the top half of the league for the fewest rushing yards (1,388) and receiving yards (491) allowed to running backs this season, getting them the ball doesn't look like a path to success in a must-win game.
The passing game with their best player -- Olave -- is the path to offensive success. That won't be anything new as we've seen Olave go over this mark in 8 of his 15 games this season.
The lack of success on the ground could push the Saints to the passing game, setting Olave up for a big game.
Jordan Love
Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Win and in. It's as simple as that for the Green Bay Packers.
A home game with a spot to clinch a playoff berth is a spot every team wants to have, and that's where we see the Packers this week. They're set to take on the Chicago Bears.
Jordan Love will be leading the way for the Packers, and over 243.5 passing yards is my favorite spot to target. He's been over this mark in 9 of his 16 games while averaging 240 passing yards this season.
However, over the last eight games, Love has bumped that up to 265 passing yards per game. That is what we should be expecting from him this week due to the Packers' potential game plan.
The Bears' defense is flat-out elite versus the run game, allowing just 84.0 yards per game (best in the NFL). Moving the ball on the ground won't be viable for the Packers this week, putting the ball in Love's hands time and time again.
This is not the time for the Packers to try and establish the run in a tough NFC North matchup. They need to air the ball out and put themselves in a spot to clinch a playoff berth.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.