3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 17

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets -- per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook -- that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

NFL Prop Bets Week 17

Josh Allen Under 27.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

For all the New England Patriots' struggles in 2023, their defense has mostly been solid, ranking 12th-best by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, and as far as this prop is concerned, the Pats have bottled up quarterbacks in the run game, permitting just 10.3 rushing yards per game to QBs, the second-fewest.

We've seen that play out in Allen's most recent matchups with New England. In their previous meeting this year, he ran for only 17 yards. In 2022, Allen mustered 16 and 20 rushing yards in two games against the Patriots. He recorded zero and 14 rushing yards in a pair of regular-season games against New England in 2021.

You actually have to go back to Week 16 of 2019 to find the last time Allen totaled at least 28 rushing yards in a regular-season game versus the Pats.

Also, for his career, Allen has run for 6.9 fewer yards per game in wins than in losses, and the Buffalo Bills are 13.5-point home favorites on Sunday.

In addition to all that, Allen hasn't been running as much this year as he has in previous campaigns, topping 27.5 rushing yards in only 4 of his past 12 games and in 6 of 15 outings in 2023.

A lot of signs point to Allen being held under 27.5 rushing yards.

Bijan Robinson Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The Chicago Bears give up a lot of pass-game production to running backs, putting me on the over for Bijan Robinson's receiving yards prop.

On the year, the Bears are surrendering the second-most targets per game (7.9), second-most catches per game (6.5) and the most receiving yards per game (59.1) to RBs. The 59.1 yards per game is 13.0 yards more than any other D is allowing to running backs. And it's not like opposing backs are racking up a lot of pass-game numbers in negative game scripts, as the Bears have won only six games.

Bijan is averaging 3.2 catches and 24.9 receiving yards per game for the season. He's topped 22.5 receiving yards in four of his past five contests, going for at least 50 receiving yards twice over the last three weeks.

Given Chicago's tendency to funnel looks to running backs along and Bijan's tackle-breaking prowess, I like his chances to finish with at least 23 receiving yards on Sunday. numberFire's model is in line, projecting Robinson for 4.0 receptions and 31.6 receiving yards.

Justice Hill Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Last week, in the first game since Keaton Mitchell's season-ending injury, Justice Hill saw a big boost in role.

In a tough matchup with the San Francisco 49ers, Hill played 62% of the snaps and handled 10 carries. That bodes well for Hill's outlook this week, especially since he put up those numbers in a game where the Baltimore Ravens played with a lead for a good chunk. If the Ravens get behind, Hill might monopolize snaps in Baltimore's backfield.

This week, the Ravens are 3.5-point home favorites against the Miami Dolphins. While Miami has been an above-average run D, 31.5 rushing yards is a pretty low bar to clear for someone who is operating as a lead back in a quality offense.

In a game with shootout potential (46.5-point over/under), Hill has a good shot to run for at least 32 yards if he gets the same role in had in Week 16. numberFire projects him to rack up 33.2 rushing yards this week.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.