3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 14

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player prop bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and we kick things off on Thursday Night! I'll be bringing this article every Thursday along with a show on the Covering the Spread podcast feed to break things down.

Pat Freiermuth Any Time Touchdown (+400)/
Pat Freiermuth Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The Pittsburgh Steelers host the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 14 of the NFL season.

With a very low 30.5-point over/under, Thursday Night brings us a game where the number of total punts could exceed the number of points scored. Despite a lack of potential scoring, there are a few player props to target this week.

Let's start with Pat Freiermuth over 27.5 receiving yards, which might be one of the only interesting overs in this game.

Freiermuth missed several games this season with a hamstring injury but has looked solid since he returned three weeks ago. Over these last three weeks, he has a 20.2% target share, 20.5% air yards share, and 33.3% red zone target share. All of those are either the second or third-highest on the Steelers during this three-game stretch.

If we look back to last season in games where Mitchell Trubisky played the majority of the game, he had a decent connection with Freiermuth in the passing game.

Against the Cincinnati Bengals, he went for 5/75/0. Against the Patriots he went for 4/22/1. Against the Cleveland Browns he went for 2/41/0. Against the Baltimore Ravens he went for 3/33/1.

Both of the touchdowns Freiermuth scored came inside the red zone. The point being, that Trubisky has a decent -- albeit small sample size -- connection with Freiermuth.

While this game won't have a massive amount of scoring, if the Steelers get to the red zone, Freiermuth is a clear option for a touchdown this week.

Mitch Trubisky Under 180.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Finally, under 180.5 passing yards for Mitchell Trubisky is the spot to look.

While I normally like all of my props to correlate in some fashion, there is a path for both of these props to hit.

I'm not expecting the Steelers to pass the ball at a high rate or be super efficient with it, which would lead to under 180.5 passing yards for Trubisky.

This season, the Steelers have a 55.43% pass play percentage, which is 25th in the league. That rate dropped to 46.55% last week when Trubisky stepped in for an injured Kenny Pickett.

This a roundabout way of saying the Steelers will primarily look to run the ball, a positive when we are talking about the under on Trubisky's passing prop. However, when they do pass it, the above-mentioned connection with Freiermuth should allow him to reach a rather low yardage total.

Last season, Trubisky averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, which has dropped to 5.6 this season. It's a very small sample size this year, but ultimately, Trubisky would need a ton of volume to reach this 180.5 passing prop, which doesn't appear likely in this game environment.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.