3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 13
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and we kick things off on Thursday Night! I'll be bringing this article every Thursday along with a show on the Covering the Spread podcast feed to break things down.
Jake Ferguson Any Time Touchdown (+170)/
Jake Ferguson Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
A 27.75 implied team total is nothing new for the league's highest-scoring team and they will put that on display to kickoff Week 13 of the NFL season. A solid 47.5 over/under is a good indication there will be some scoring, so let's jump in.
We'll start with the Cowboys' tight end, Jake Ferguson to score and touchdown and over 35.5 receiving yards. The second-year pro has carved out a nice role for himself within the Cowboys' passing offense and a good matchup against the Seahawks' defense puts him in a spot for a big game.
This season, Ferguson has a 15.1% target share and 11.8% air yards share, but most importantly, he has a 26.1% red zone target share, which is the highest on the team.
That's right. Ferguson has the highest red zone target share on the Cowboys for the entire season. Of course, there are going to be some changes with that number throughout the season, and when we look over the last three games (20.0%) or five games (22.6%), CeeDee Lamb holds the top spot, but Ferguson is right behind him in second.
When it comes to the Seahawks' defense, they have struggled against tight ends and have allowed the 12th-most (570) receiving yards.
Ferguson is playing a strong role for the Cowboys in the scoring area and with a high implied team total, he's in a good spot to find the endzone.
DK Metcalf Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
With a very tough matchup, under 59.5 receiving yards for D.K. Metcalf is the spot to look.
The Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the league and it rarely puts opposing players in a good matchup. We also see the Seahawks quarterback, Geno Smith dealing with an elbow injury that limited his production last week to only 180 passing yards against the San Francisco 49ers.
To be clear, Smith isn't on the injury report this week, but the matchup this week is actually tougher. The 49ers are allowing 213.3 passing yards per game, while the Cowboys are allowing 167.2 passing yards per game.
This is shown very clearly by the fact the Cowboys have only allowed 1,297 receiving yards to wide receivers this season, which is the third-fewest in the league. That's good for just 117 yards per game to all of the opposing wide receivers on a team.
When we look at all of this, the Cowboys' defense is truly elite, and even if Smith is healthier than last week, this still isn't a good matchup for him to pile up the yards. If Smith isn't in for a big game, neither is Metcalf.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.