3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Thursday 3/7/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Thursday 3/7/24

Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.

That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Picks

Jaylen Brown Under 21.5 Points (-106)

When the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors met up this past Sunday, Golden State opted to ride with a game plan that placed little emphasis on guarding Jaylen Brown. Brown hit them back by scoring 19 points in the first quarter.

I don't think the Denver Nuggets will be so naive when they take on the C's tonight.

The Nuggets play at the fourth-slowest pace and own the ninth-best defensive rating in the NBA. The Celtics aren't too dissimilar, playing at the 12th-slowest pace and touting the second-best defensive rating.

This potential Finals preview should be a competitive yet low-scoring game, and I'd anticipate Brown's scoring production to reflect that.

There is no team in the league that gives up fewer points per game to small forwards than the Nuggets do.

Among Boston starters, Brown scores the highest percentage of his points in the paint. Denver might not stand for this as they limit forwards to the second-fewest paint points in the league.

This matchup features a 220.5-point over/under (second-lowest on the slate) and a 1.0-point spread. Brown has played in five games this season where the Celtics came in favored by 6.0 points or fewer and the over/under sat below 226.0 points. In this split, he is averaging just 18.5 points.

FanDuel Research's projections, which are powered by numberFire, do not anticipate Brown to make the grade, either. They have him set to score 20.2 points.

Anthony Edwards Over 30.5 Points (-115)

A meeting with the Indiana Pacers paired with Karl-Anthony Towns' injury status (out; meniscus) could have Anthony Edwards going scorched earth tonight.

This season, Edwards has played in a pair of games without Towns. He scored 34 points in both of those games. Although this is a very small sample to work with, it does give us an idea of what Edwards' shot volume looks like when KAT -- who shoots 15.5 field goal attempts (FGA) per game -- is out.

When sharing the court with KAT, Edwards is netting 26.2 points per 36 minutes. But when KAT is on the bench, Edwards is scoring 29.1 points per 36 minutes.

Edwards shot 27 and 29 FGA in the two games without Towns, and once we factor in this matchup against Indiana, it's easy to see the potential.

The Pacers let up the second-most points per game to shooting guards. Indiana is also playing at the second-fastest pace. It's a big pace-up spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who play at the seventh-slowest pace.

If you're siding with Edwards, the pace-up nature of this game should be comforting.

Edwards has suited up for nine games against teams that rank in the top five of pace. In this split, he is averaging 30.1 points. But if we adjust this split to account for only the fast-paced teams that also rank in the bottom 15 of defensive rating -- Indiana ranks 27th -- he is averaging 31.0 points and exceeded 30.5 points in 5 out of 7 games (38, 37, 31, 34, 32, 28, and 17 points).

Keep in mind that the aforementioned split does not account for KAT's absence. With KAT gone, Edwards seems primed to have a big night.

Stephen Curry Over 5.5 Made Threes (-104)

The Chicago Bulls are in town, which means Golden State should be gearing up to shoot and drain a ton of three-pointers.

The Bulls give up the most three-point attempts (3PA) and three-point makes (3PM) in the league, both on the season and across their last 15 games.

The Warriors, meanwhile, rank second in 3PM per game, so tonight's contest seems like a match made in heaven for Stephen Curry.

Golden State is coming off a 125-90 victory last night. Curry led the way, making six three-pointers before exiting the game early due to blowout circumstances.

I think this puts Curry in a great spot for tonight. While the second leg of a back-to-back could cause concern for fatigue, especially when talking about vets, last night's game wasn't particularly exhausting. Plus, it's not bad to trail Curry when he's on a hot streak, and the Warriors will continue to put him out in front as they look to secure a playoff spot.

Curry has played in nine games against the teams that rank in the top five of most 3PM allowed. In this split, he averaged 6.1 3PM and nailed at least five three-pointers in all but one game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.