3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 3/27/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Franz Wagner Over 23.5 Pts + Reb (-122)

The Orlando Magic will host the Golden State Warriors, and as props go, Franz Wagner might be the best option on the board for tonight's slate.

On the season, Wagner is averaging 25.2 combined points and rebounds (PR). He has surpassed 23.5 PR in 62.0% of his games where he has played at least 30 minutes, so I'm satisfied with these -122 odds, which suggest just a 54.9% probability.

But a date with the Warriors? That could be the best possible matchup for Wagner.

Golden State is the smallest team in basketball. The Magic, meanwhile, are one of the biggest teams in basketball. Wagner (6'10) is joined in Orlando's starting lineup by Paolo Banchero (6'10) and Wendell Carter Jr. (6'10).

The Warriors do not have a lot of size to throw at the Magic, so I'd expect Wagner to draw a pretty easy matchup.

Golden State allows the 11th-most points and the fifth-most rebounds to small forwards. They also let up the fifth-most three-point attempts (3PA) per game while Wagner nets 20.9% of his points from behind the arc.

Beyond a friendly matchup, the pace of this game will be key. Orlando is one of the slowest teams in the league, playing at the fifth-slowest pace. On the other hand, Golden State plays at the 11th-fastest pace and has been rocking with the league's ninth-fastest tempo across their last 15 games.

Wagner is unreal against fast-paced opponents.

In 25 games against teams that rank in the top 11 of pace, Wagner is averaging 28.4 PR. He eclipsed 23.5 PR in 19 of these 25 games, so this is a great spot for Wagner to have a big night.

Nikola Vucevic Over 28.5 Pts + Reb (-115)

Another pace-up spot for a player who could go off.

Nikola Vucevic is averaging 28.6 PR for the Chicago Bulls, but a meeting with the Indiana Pacers could have him punching above his PR average.

The Pacers let up the second-most points and the 12th-most rebounds to centers per 36 minutes. They're also ceding the second-most paint points in the NBA while Vucevic nets 58.3% of his points in the paint.

Just about every game is a pace-up game for the Bulls, a team that moves at the third-slowest tempo. But this season, Indiana's namesake has been extremely on the nose, as they move at the second-fastest pace in the NBA.

Historically, Vucevic racks up PR in fast games, averaging 31.6 PR against teams that are in the top five of pace.

This game features a 235.0 over/under and 2.5-point spread. Since Chicago is a slow-moving team, Vucevic has played in just eight games that tipped up with a 229.0 over/under or higher. In this split, he averaged 32.0 PR.

FanDuel Research's projections agree that he is in a solid spot to produce. They forecast Vucevic to record 30.4 PR this evening.

Ochai Agbaji Over 9.5 Points (-113)

The Toronto Raptors took a page out of the Memphis Grizzlies' book and have a laundry list of players featured on the injury report.

With Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl all sidelined, Toronto has been forced to revamp their starting lineup.

One of those new starters is Ochai Agbaji, a player who looks set up to score double-digit points against the New York Knicks tonight.

The four aforementioned Toronto starters have been out of the lineup for four straight games. In this span, Agbaji has played at least 30 minutes in each contest and scored a minimum of 11 points in every outing.

He's been averaging 12.0 points off 10.8 field goal attempts in this split, and we should expect this shot volume to stick amid the circumstances. Agbaji is one of just four available Toronto players who averages at least 20.0 minutes per game.

Since Quickley has been out, Agbaji has been averaging 0.39 points per minute. At that rate, Agbaji would need to play just 26 minutes -- something he has reached in eight straight games -- in order to score 10 points this evening.

Our projections expect Agbaji to play 30.3 minutes and score 10.0 points in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.