3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 1/3/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Anthony Davis Under 45.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-115)

The Miami Heat will visit the Los Angeles Lakers tonight, and it feels apt to target an under.

The Lakers have a 117.5 implied team total against the Heat, while numberFire is expecting LA to end this one with just 112.18 points. Given that the Heat allow the eighth-fewest points per game (112.0) and play at the league's fifth-slowest pace, this low team total projection for Los Angeles seems fit.

Enter Anthony Davis, a player who is overvalued by the market tonight, especially given his matchup. Davis is averaging 40.6 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) this season. In 18 Laker games that have ended with a 112-point or lower team total, Davis is averaging just 38.1 PRA.

Now let's take a look at this matchup. The Heat give up both the fewest points and assists to centers per game. As boards go, they are middle of the pack, ranking 15th in rebounds allowed to centers, but Bam Adebayo should give Davis some trouble.

Among starting centers in the NBA, Adebayo ranks seventh in defensive rebounding percentage (which is higher than Davis). Davis records the eighth-most offensive rebounds and is scoring the fourth-most putback points per game -- Adebayo should limit Davis' opportunities in this regard.

These two teams faced off in early November, resulting in a 108-107 Heat win. Davis recorded just 19.0 PRA in this game, though he was limited to 25 minutes. Davis averages 35.6 minutes per game this season, so even if we properly adjust for minutes, he put up only 27.36 PRA per 36 minutes in the aforementioned Heat matchup.

There is one caveat with this prop. LeBron James (illness) is questionable for tonight's contest, although the FanDuel market is operating under the assumption that he will play. Davis' PRA line should move up if LeBron is out, so I'd hold out until we get word on LeBron's status. But either way, the under seems to be the best move tonight.

Immanuel Quickley To Score 20+ Points (+185)

After being traded to the Toronto Raptors, Immanuel Quickley has earned himself a spot in a starting lineup, and we should jump on his scoring prop before the market adjusts.

Quickley is an efficient scorer. He's averaging 22.5 points per 36 minutes this season but was seeing only 24.0 minutes of court time and 11.2 field-goal attempts (FGA) per game as a bench player on the New York Knicks.

His first game as a starter with the Raptors resulted in 13 FGA in 28 minutes, and we should expect this usage to shoot up even more as he gets acclimated to the team.

Last season, injuries for the Knicks had Quickley locked into the starting lineup on 21 occasions. He averaged 22.6 points per game across that span. Prior to his Raptors debut, Quickley had scored 20-plus points in his last seven games as a starter, averaging a whopping 29.4 points in that sample. If a team affords Quickley the opportunity, he will score, and we should see that tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Memphis surrenders the fourth-most three-point makes (3PM) to guards per 36 minutes. Quickley nets 42.1% of his points from behind the arc and shoots the three-ball at a solid 40.0% clip. He can also get to the free throw line, scoring 18.1% of his points off of foul shots. The Grizzlies give up the 11th-most free-throw attempts per game.

Quickley committed four fouls in his Toronto debut, which was unusually high (he averages 1.5 fouls per game) and forced him to the bench at times. I think the Raptors will look to see what they have in their new young guard and give him the green light tonight.

Kyrie Irving Over 21.5 Points (-118)

Kyrie Irving returned to the Dallas Mavericks on Monday to the tune of just 14 points, but the Mavs as a whole scored only 90 points in this contest. Dallas has a 125.5 implied team total against the Portland Trail Blazers tonight, and Irving is not operating under any minutes restriction.

If we take out the 13-minute game in which Irving sustained a heel injury, we can see that he is averaging 23.2 points per game this season.

Now he'll get a chance to go up against the Blazers, a team that has allowed opposing guards the ninth-most points per 36 minutes over the last month. Irving went up against Portland in the aforementioned 13-minute game. He scored 11 points during his brief stint on the court that night, which when adjusted for his true minutes per game (31.8), we can see that he was on track to score 26.9 points.

Portland gives up the third-most paint points in the league, so Irving should have ample opportunity to drive to the basket and get good looks.

numberFire is forecasting a 24.3-point outing for Irving, which gives us plenty of wiggle room to feel comfortable in siding with the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.