3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 3/21/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 3/21/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Donte Divincenzo Over 23.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-104)

Don't let Donte DiVincenzo get hot in March.

With OG Anunoby returning to the injury report, the New York Knicks player prop market is once again showing strong value. The best choice on the board looks to be DiVincenzo's combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) prop.

This season, DiVincenzo has played in 18 games without Anunoby (since he was acquired by New York).

In this split, he is averaging 29.9 PRA and exceeded 23.5 PRA in 13 out of 18 games.

Since Anunoby's absence is pretty impactful, not to mention that Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson have been sidelined in this same span, it seems apt to take DiVincenzo's Anunoby-less split as bible.

With this in mind, DiVincenzo is clearing 23.5 PRA at a 72.2% rate on this current iteration of the Knicks, while these -104 odds imply just a 50.9% probability.

It's easy to love the value here. It's not as easy to love this matchup against the Denver Nuggets.

Denver and New York are two of the slowest teams in the league, each ranking in the bottom four of pace. This leaves us with just a 208.0 over/under, and the Knicks with only a 99.5 implied team total.

However, numberFire's game projections are predicting a loftier total. They expect the Knicks to score 107.47 points in this one, which is actually more points than the Knicks have been scoring (105.1 points) since Randle and Anunoby's initial injuries in late January.

Denver comes in with the league's 10th-best defensive rating. But strong defenses haven't been able to tame DiVincenzo. In his last five games against top-10 defenses, he is averaging 27.2 PRA.

FanDuel Research's projections are equally bullish on this prop. They have DiVincenzo set to record 26.4 PRA against the Nuggets.

Clint Capela Over 22.5 Pts + Reb (-102)

Jalen Johnson has joined Saddiq Bey and Trae Young on the injury report for the Atlanta Hawks.

A huge Clint Capela game could be imminent.

Capela is averaging 21.9 combined points and rebounds (PR) this season, and I believe the market has not properly accounted for his potential with both Johnson and Bey out of the lineup.

He's played in 16 games without Johnson this season. In that span, he is averaging 25.5 PR and surpassed 22.5 PR in 12 out of 16 games.

Capela has also played in six games without Bey. He's averaging 26.2 PR and cleared 22.5 PR in all but one game in this split.

In one game with both Johnson and Bey absent, Capela managed 27.0 PR.

Bottom line -- Capela is surpassing 22.5 PR at a 76.2% rate when Johnson and/or Bey is out, so the 50.5% probability on this prop (courtesy of these -102 odds) feels off.

Based on this, I'd probably feel comfortable taking a shot on Capela's PR prop regardless of his matchup. But a date with the Phoenix Suns adds to the intrigue.

Phoenix's 13th-ranked defense isn't overly intimidating. Plus, they've struggled with the league's 12th-worst defensive rating across their last 10 games. Add in that this game will be the second leg of a back-to-back for the Suns -- against a Hawks team that plays at the fourth-fastest pace -- and defense may become an afterthought.

Further, the Suns have been surrendering the eighth-most points and 11th-most rebounds to centers.

Our projections have Capela down for 23.6 PR this evening.

C.J. McCollum Over 7.5 Reb + Ast (+114)

C.J. McCollum is averaging 8.6 combined rebounds and assists (RA) and has exceeded 7.5 RA in 69.2% of his games this season.

So, why do these +114 odds imply just a 46.7% probability?

Well, he's recorded over 7.5 RA in just 6 of his last 12 games, and a date with the Orlando Magic doesn't exude encouragement.

But even still, there is too much value with these plus-odds for me to fade McCollum in this market.

Orlando owns the league's third-best defense. We could shudder at this, or we could choose to recognize that McCollum is averaging 8.7 RA against the top-8 defenses this season, eclipsing 7.5 RA in 8 out of 11 games in this split.

The Magic surrender the third-fewest points per game. McCollum has managed great numbers against point-repellant teams, averaging 8.3 RA and surpassing 7.5 RA in 9 out of 12 games against the 10 teams that let up the fewest points per game.

If McCollum had a poor history against great defenses, perhaps I could be swayed away from targeting a prop that is otherwise scorching with value. But he doesn't, and our projections concur. They predict him to record 9.1 RA in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.