3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 1/29/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Victor Wembanyama Under 29.5 Pts + Ast (-106)

Betting against Victor Wembanyama in a matchup against the Washington Wizards feels like breaking a cardinal rule, but I think this 29.5 combined points and assists (PA) line is set too high.

On the season, Wemby is averaging 23.6 PA. He has eclipsed 29.5 PA in just five of his 40 games. This means he is hitting under 29.5 PA in 87.5% of games, which is significantly higher than the 51.46% implied probability we are getting at -106.

At this line, the hit rate for the under is super encouraging, but I don't want to ignore how smooth this matchup could be for Wemby. A meeting between the San Antonio Spurs and Wizards gives us a slate-high 241.5 over/under and will showcase two of the worst defenses in basketball.

Washington is surrendering more points than any team in basketball, and we should expect a fast-paced, albeit ugly, game. But a glance at Wembanyama's game log shows us that tonight's potential game environment is nothing new for the Spurs.

Wemby has gone up against the Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers, Atlanta Hawks, and Detroit Pistons -- all of whom rank in the top 7 of both pace and points allowed -- and he still averaged just 23.6 PA in these games and failed to exceed 29.5 PA in any of them.

Plus, Wembanyama doesn't always see consistent time on the floor. He's been playing only 26.1 minutes per game this month (averages 28.6 minutes this season), and Gregg Popovich has taken no issue with sending the turnover-prone rising star to the bench at times.

Wemby went up against the Wizards, playing 28 minutes and shooting 21 field goal attempts (third-most this season) but still mustered just 28.0 PA. Despite the friendly matchup, I feel comfortable with what history has shown us in siding with the under.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 9.5 Points (-106)

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been shining in his rookie year, averaging 13.8 points per game for the Miami Heat.

Like most rookies, the first two weeks were a bit slow for Jaquez. But since that time, he has eclipsed 9.5 points in 29 of his last 33 games, giving the over at this line a whopping 87.9% hit rate, bounds above the 51.46% implied probability at -106.

While I think 9.5 points is setting the bar too low, the market isn't completely erroneous in its reasoning. The Heat recently acquired Terry Rozier in a trade, so there is one more cook in the Miami kitchen. Additionally, Jaquez recently missed six games for the Heat while dealing with a groin injury.

However, Jaquez returned to action this past Saturday and played 24.0 minutes, so there has been no indication that this injury is lingering or will impact his minutes.

Jaquez will go up against the Phoenix Suns, a team that has been giving up the ninth-most three-point makes (3PM) over their last 15 games. Jaquez nets 22.8% of his points from behind the arc, and even just one drained three could go a long way in getting him to double-digits in the point column.

The Suns give up the 13th-most paint points in the league; not terrible but not great, either. Jaquez scores 57.9% of his points in the paint and should be able to get a few buckets against this so-so defense.

Jaquez went up against Phoenix on one occasion this season and cleared 9.5 points. As mentioned, he has scored 10-plus points in 29 of his last 33 games -- the acquisition of Terry Rozier does not move the needle enough to justify anything but the over here.

C.J. McCollum Over 21.5 Pts + Reb (-102)

We'll wrap up by targeting C.J. McCollum to take advantage of a friendly matchup against the Boston Celtics.

On the season, McCollum is averaging 23.5 combined points and rebounds (PR). He has surpassed 21.5 PR in 19 of his 32 games, so he's hitting the over at a higher rate (59.4%) than the 50.5% implied probability at -102.

The Celtics typically pose a tough matchup, except for opposing point guards.

Boston is surrendering the eighth-most points and seventh-most rebounds to point guards per game. They are also allowing this position to drain the fourth-most 3PM, which is great news for McCollum backers.

McCollum nets 54.1% of his points from downtown and is shooting the three-ball at a solid 44.0% clip (10th-best in the NBA). Boston will allow teams to make it rain from downtown -- so long as they can, too -- and McCollum is the best candidate on the New Orleans Pelicans to do just that.

A modest 21.5 PR line and a great matchup have me siding with the over, but McCollum's history against Boston is worth mentioning, as well. McCollum has exceeded 21.5 PR in eight straight games against the Celtics, averaging 29.6 PR across that span.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.