3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 5/3/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 5/3/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Donovan Mitchell 3+ Made Threes (-120) / 4+ Made Threes (+230)

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-2 series lead) will look to put away the Orlando Magic tonight, and I'm expecting a big game from Donovan Mitchell.

While Mitchell has been averaging 27.0 points across Cleveland's three wins during this series, he's struggled to get going from behind the arc. He's gone just 5-for-27 (18.5% 3P%) from downtown in his last four games, but we should start to see some positive regression.

In the regular season, Mitchell averaged 3.3 three-point makes (3PM) per game and shot threes at a 36.8% clip.

He's been playing 35.0 minutes per game in round one, and FanDuel Research's projections have him slated to log 37.3 minutes in Game 6.

Mitchell played at least 33.0 minutes in 44 games during the regular season. In this split, he averaged 3.4 3PM per game.

He drained at least three three-pointers in 63.6% of these games, while the -120 odds on this prop imply just a 54.5% probability.

Further, he nailed at least four threes in 54.5% of these games, but the +240 odds on his 4+ Made Threes prop suggests just a 30.3% probability.

There's value in laddering Mitchell's made threes props, and it's easy to like him in this buy-low spot.

Orlando has an awesome defense, but Mitchell is pretty much inarguably the best player in this series and can create his own shots. He averaged 8.3 three-point attempts (3PA) across Cleveland's wins in this series and the Cavs went 21-7 in games where Mitchell drained at least four threes.

Look for the Cavs to prioritize three-point shooting in this one. The team is averaging 35.3 3PA in their playoff wins but only 25.5 3PA in their playoff losses.

Mitchell should lead the three-point shooting pack and has a great opportunity to see some positive regression amid some poor shooting nights.

I should note that Mitchell made five or more threes in 25.0% of games where he played at least 33 minutes this season. While that hit rate would translate to +300 odds, you can find Mitchell 5+ Made Threes at +600. This is a slow-paced series, but if you're bullish on Mitchell's potential, there's some value to be had here.

Wendell Carter Jr. Over 15.5 Pts + Reb (-106)

After Orlando found themselves in a 0-2 series hole, the team made some rotation changes, substituting Wendell Carter Jr. for Jonathan Isaac in the starting lineup.

The Magic are 2-1 with Carter as a starter, losing Game 5 by just one point. He's played a role in their success, recording 16 combined points and rebounds (PR) in Game 4 and 18 PR in Game 5, and it seems apt to trail him this evening.

Our projections expect Carter to log 30.9 minutes tonight. Since this series features two solid defenses that play at slow paces, I feel confident enough to ride with a stat sample in which Carter played at least 25 minutes.

In the regular season, Carter saw at least 25 minutes in 29 games. In this split, he averaged a whopping 21.6 PR and cleared 15.5 PR in 25 out of 29 contests.

If you give Carter the opportunity, he typically makes use of his time, as evidenced by his regular-season play and his 16 PR and 18 PR nights in the most recent games of this series.

The Cavs have a lot of size to deal with in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, and Orlando has found somewhat of a solution in starting Carter. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Our projections are super high on Carter in this one. They expect him to net 21.6 PR tonight.

James Harden Over 12.5 Reb + Ast (-136)

While there will always be some concern regarding whether or not James Harden will show up -- particularly in the playoffs -- he has all the business in the world exceeding 12.5 combined rebounds and assists (RA) in Game 6 against the Dallas Mavericks.

Harden averaged 13.6 RA this season. He's been playing 39.6 minutes in the playoffs and is expected to log 40.38 minutes tonight.

He played at least 34.0 minutes in 49 games this season. In this split, Harden is averaging 14.3 RA and eclipsed 12.5 RA in 36 out of 49 games (73.5% of contests).

Kawhi Leonard (knee) remains out for the Los Angeles Clippers. Harden averaged 14.2 RA in 11 games without Leonard this season. And in games where Harden played more than 26 minutes, he surpassed 12.5 RA in 9 out of 9 Leonard-less games.

So, why is Harden averaging just 11.0 RA in this series?

While the playoffs bring on a slower-than-normal pace, Harden is playing more minutes than normal. The trouble here is not Harden's matchup, but the rate at which he is converting rebound and assist opportunities.

In the regular season, Harden averaged a combined 21.7 rebound chances and potential assists. He converted this to the stat sheet at a 62.7% rate, averaging 13.6 RA.

In playoff games without Leonard, Harden is averaging 21.0 combined rebounds chances and potential assists. If he converted this at that same 62.7% rate, that would leave him with a 13.16 RA average.

So long as the Clippers come out to play in what will be a win-or-go-home game for them, I love Harden in this spot. Our projections have him slated to record 15.5 RA in Game 6.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.