3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 3/15/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 3/15/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Immanuel Quickley Top Points Scorer in Magic-Raptors (+180)

Paolo Banchero owns the shortest odds (+145) in the top points scorer market for the Orlando Magic-Toronto Raptors game, but that status should belong to Immanuel Quickley.

Three of Toronto's starters will be out in this one: RJ Barrett (20.8 points per game), Scottie Barnes (19.9 points), and Jakob Poeltl (11.1 points).

Factor in that Gary Trent Jr. (12.3 points) is questionable, and hardly any scorers could be left for the Raptors -- except for Quickley.

Barnes has been sidelined for five games, and in that time, Quickley is averaging 22.8 points per game.

Both Barnes and Barrett have missed two straight games. Quickey scored 29 and 25 points without them in the lineup. He saw his shot volume rise to 20.0 field goal attempts (FGA) per game, and we shouldn't expect much different tonight. He has the go-ahead to take over.

Banchero and Franz Wagner are legit candidates to lead this game in scoring. After all, Orlando's 113.5 implied team total is higher than that of Toronto's 104.5 implied team total.

But Quickley has a higher shot volume potential than Banchero (17.6 FGA per game) and Wagner (15.7 FGA), who will each give each other a run for their money in the points column.

FanDuel Research's projections anticipate Quickley to come out on top in this market. They expect Quickley to score 23.4 points, Banchero to score 22.5 points, and Wagner to score 18.6 points.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 8.5 Points (-115)

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is averaging 10.1 points per game and has exceeded 8.5 points in 63.3% of his games.

The market thinks there is just a 53.5% probability that KCP will score over 8.5 points tonight. I think we should challenge them on this.

The Denver Nuggets will take on the San Antonio Spurs in a game that could trend towards a blowout.

San Antonio comes in with the league's eighth-worst defensive rating, which won't hold up well against Denver's seventh-best offense.

But, KCP has done well for himself against lesser opponents. When going up against a bottom-10 defense, he is averaging 10.2 points and scored over 8.5 points in 13 out of 20 games.

The Spurs play at the third-fastest pace in the NBA while Denver plays at the fourth-slowest pace.

KCP has been awesome in pace-up games. He's played 10 contests against teams that rank in the top 7 of pace. In this split, he is averaging 12.9 points per game and surpassed 8.5 points in 8 out of 10 games.

San Antonio is also surrendering the fifth-most points per game to shooting guards, so I think the over is the side to be on.

CJ McCollum Over 7.5 Reb + Ast (+104)

C.J. McCollum is averaging 8.6 combined rebounds and assists (RA) per game, and despite a tough matchup on deck against the Los Angeles Clippers, I think he can reach his RA average tonight.

These +104 odds imply a 49.0% probability. This should catch our eye, as McCollum has exceeded 7.5 RA in 34 of his 49 games this season, hitting this over in 69.4% of his games.

Across their last 15 games, the Clippers have surrendered the 14th-most rebounds and the 9th-most assists per game to guards. In this same span, LAC owns the league's fifth-worst defensive rating, so perhaps this matchup is not as tough as it sounds.

The New Orleans Pelicans play at the 15th-slowest pace in the NBA while the Clippers play at the 10th-slowest pace. A leisurely game environment could be grounds for concern, but there is actually a very positive correlation between McCollum's RA numbers and playing in a slow game.

McCollum has played in 10 games against teams that rank in the bottom 10 of pace (not including one game he exited early due to injury). In this split, he is averaging 9.3 RA and eclipsed 7.5 RA in 9 out of 10 games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.