3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 7/2/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 7/2/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Player Props

Bryan Reynolds to Record a Run (-135)

June was a great month for Bryan Reynolds, who batted .330 with a .604 slugging percentage (SLG) while scoring 15 runs over a 26-game span. Reynolds will face the St. Louis Cardinals' Kyle Gibson, who just gave up four runs in four innings in his most recent start.

According to Savant, Gibson's most-used pitches are sinkers (27.6%), sweepers (21.6%), and cutters (21.1%). Reynolds is hitting at least .250 when facing sinkers and cutters, per FanGraphs. While we saw Reynolds' 25-game hit streak come to an end on June 30th, I still like his chances of getting another hit (-250) and to reach base.

Scoring a run will likely depend on the batters behind Reynolds, though. We saw the Pittsburgh Pirates' outfielder score 10 runs over an 11-game span from June 14th to June 25th.

Oneil Cruz, who hits third behind Reynolds, has a promising matchup against Gibson. He has one hit in three career at-bats against the veteran starter and hits .273 against cutters -- one of Gibson's most-used pitches. Edward Olivares, who hits cleanup, is in a similar spot with a .273 batting average against cutters.

Reynolds has been Pittsburgh's most reliable batter, and with potential favorable matchups ahead for Cruz and Olivares, we could see the Pirates' outfielder cross home plate tonight.

Aaron Judge to Record 3+ Total Bases (+135)

Aaron Judge -- one of the game's top sluggers -- is facing a starting pitcher who struggles against power hitters. That could spell a big day ahead for Judge, who is the current AL MVP favorite, listed at -270 odds to win the American League MVP.

The New York Yankees are playing host to Graham Ashcraft and the Cincinnati Reds. Ashcraft is in the bottom 9% in hard-hit percentage. This isn't an anomaly as he went from the 63rd percentile to the 51st percentile from 2022 to 2023. The decline has continued, but this time it's been a huge drop off.

Judge is a matchup nightmare for Ashcraft. His league-leading 31 home runs is enough reason to worry for the Redlegs' hurler. This only grows with Judge leading MLB in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and barrel rate while touting the fourth-highest average bat speed.

Ashcraft has a 10.00 ERA over his previous two outings while surrendering two homers in his most recent start. One of Judge's only weaknesses has been striking out (25.1% K rate), but Ashcraft is in the bottom 15% of strikeout percentage (K%).

With 7 hits over his last 12 at-bats (.583), Judge should keep rolling tonight, and his +215 odds to hit a home run on Dinger Tuesday. Judge to total three bases is carrying excellent value considering the very favorable matchup versus Ashcraft.

Shohei Ohtani to Record 2+ Total Bases (-170)

Let's take advantage of another elite slugger taking on a starter who regularly gives up hard contact. Shohei Ohtani, who comes in at -230 odds to win National League MVP, is doing the usual with 26 homers (second-most). He's also carrying the second-best average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and barrel percentage.

Reaching two bases has been like a walk in the park for Ohtani as he's done so in six of his last nine games. As you probably guessed, this is thanks to going yard more than a few times as Ohtani has racked up six dingers over the nine-game span.

I'm banking on his slugging for tonight's matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ryne Nelson will take the mound; he's carrying a 5.69 ERA and 4.68 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He has given up four homers over his last five. His Savant numbers aren't much better -- he's in the bottom 12% of barrel percentage and bottom 16% in hard-hit rate.

Nelson leans on his four-seam fastball with a 50.0% usage rate on the pitch. This is right down Ohtani's alley as he hits .316 against four-seamers with 10 homers.

Whether it be a big fly or an extra-base hit, Ohtani's slugging should reign supreme on Tuesday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.