3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/20/24

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas
3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/20/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Player Props

Wenceel Perez to Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)

Wenceel Perez has given a big lift to the Detroit Tigers' offense, and I like him today in a date with Michael Wacha.

Perez -- a switch-hitter who has been slotted third in the lineup lately -- has done nothing but rake through his first 106 MLB plate appearances, mashing his way to a .390 wOBA with a 44.3% fly-ball rate. He's done well from both sides of the plate, too, although his fly-ball rate is significantly higher against righties (47.8%), which adds to his appeal for this matchup.

So far in 2024, Wacha has more or less been the same guy he's been in recent seasons. He's the owner of a 4.24 SIERA and 20.6% strikeout rate. Lefty bats have put up a .334 wOBA and 48.6% fly-ball rate against him.

The Tigers are expected to have a decent amount of success offensively today as they're +100 to go over 4.5 runs. Given that and with Perez being on the road, there's a chance he gets five trips to the plate today, which is obviously a plus for this bet.

All in all, I'll roll the dice on these +105 odds that Perez totals at least two bases on Monday.

Lars Nootbar to Record 2+ Bases (+130)

Lars Nootbaar has been cooking, and he can take advantage of today's matchup with Dean Kremer.

Kremer, a right-hander, has pitched to a 3.72 ERA and 3.67 SIERA this season. He's been good. I'm not totally buying it, though. His BABIP is .200, miles off his .287 career average, and Kremer's swinging-strike rate is only 9.2%. He's allowing 1.79 homers per nine, including 2.01 per nine to lefty bats.

Enter Nootbaar.

Nootbaar has been scorching hot, registering a .473 wOBA and 214 wRC+ across the last eight games (35 plate appearances). He's striking out just 14.3% of the time in that span. For the season, Nootbaar has posted a blah .327 wOBA, but his underlying numbers look way better as he's got a .376 expected wOBA (xwOBA).

With the platoon advantage against Kremer, Nootbaar should be set up for success tonight as he's recorded a .359 wOBA versus righties this season. This +130 number is pretty appealing to me.

Freddie Freeman to Record an RBI (+115)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to be up against Slade Cecconi tonight, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are going with Joe Mantiply as an opener first.

Cecconi has a 4.67 SIERA and 18.3% strikeout rate. Mantiply is striking out just 19.2% of hitters. As a whole, Arizona's bullpen is 25th in xFIP (4.31) and 28th in strikeout rate (19.2%). So, regardless of who the Snakes put out there today, we should feel great at targeting bats from a Dodgers offense that is -128 to go over 4.5 runs.

Freddie Freeman is the LA hitter I'm zeroed in on.

Regardless of the pitching matchup, Freeman's RBI prop is enticing nearly every single night thanks to his spot in the order behind Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani. With Betts and Ohtani grabbing headlines, Freeman's quality start to the campaign has gone a little overlooked. The veteran first baseman has amassed a .386 xwOBA and a career-high 43.1% fly-ball rate while nearly walking (14.4% walk rate) more than he's striking out (16.7% K rate).

Mantiply, Cecconi and Arizona's bullpen should be in for a long day, and I'm going to try to take advantage of that via Freeman's +115 RBI prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.