3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 9/13/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Anthony Santander To Hit a Home Run (+400)

A big 5.28 implied run total for the Baltimore Orioles is a great spot to look for some player props.

The visiting St. Louis Cardinals will have Drew Rom on the mound, a pitcher with very limited MLB experience. This is Rom's first year in the MLB and has a small 17.1 inning sample size, so we have to take things with a grain of salt.

In this short time, Rom has allowed a .409 wOBA, .548 SLG, 6.78 xFIP, 1.29 HR/9, 7.0% strikeout rate, 39.7% fly-ball rate, and 37.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

Frankly, we should simply look to trust a proven hitter with Anthony Santander over a rookie pitcher.

Speaking of Santander, he comes in with a 124 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .178 ISO, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 46.2% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season.

If we take a look at his BasballSavant numbers, he has 30.6 xHR this season with only 27 actual home runs. While this isn't a massive difference, it's good to know Santander has strong underlying numbers for home runs. As always, I'll add Santander To Record an RBI (+100), too.

Yordan Alvarez To Record 2+ Hits (+125)

The Houston Astros will look to get back on track against the Oakland Athletics tonight.

A few slow games from their offense are bound to happen but a favorable matchup versus Paul Blackburn should allow them to pile up some runs.

Blackburn has allowed a .351 wOBA, .436 SLG, 4.42 xFIP, .390 BABIP, and 9.5% walk rate versus lefties this season. Those stats are nothing we need to worry about and should side with the hitters in this matchup.

When it comes to Yordan Alvarez, his odds for 2+ total bases sit at -170, which I have no interest in. The odds for 2+ hits at +125 are much more enticing since these props are somewhat correlated. Of course, there are outcomes where Alvarez hits a double and would cash the 2+ total bases but not the 2+ hits prop. I want to shoot for the upside with the plus money prop.

Alvarez comes in with a 181 wRC+, .433 wOBA, .316 ISO, .288 BABIP, 47.8% fly-ball rate, and 48.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Alvarez is elite across the board and is in a great spot to cash this prop.

Hunter Brown Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)

For a pitching prop tonight, under 6.5 strikeouts for Hunter Brown is the spot I'm targeting.

Brown is a solid young pitcher for the Astros but has been a bit inconsistent in the second half of the season. Overall on the year, he has a 26.9% strikeout rate, but that has dropped to 24.6% in the second half.

While that's not a massive decrease, we also see Brown failing to reach the fifth inning in each of his last five starts. He hasn't been efficient with his innings and that has caused him to hit the under on this prop in four of these five starts.

While this is an easier matchup versus the Athletics, Brown isn't showing a level of consistency that would put him in a spot to reach seven strikeouts tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.