3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 8/7/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates

Padres -1.5 (+102)

The San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates square off for Game 2 of their three-game series at PNC Park tonight. After the Padres blanked them, 6-0, in the opener, I like them to cover the run line again tonight.

Face-value numbers notwithstanding, this is a pretty lopsided pitching matchup.

Michael King (9-6, 3.26 ERA) toes the rubber for the visitors, having pitched like one of the best arms in baseball over the last three months. Since May 1st, King has a 2.55 ERA, 2.32 FIP, and 10.6 K/9 across 15 starts. San Diego is 10-5 with a +1.9 average run differential with King on the bump over that stretch.

That doesn't bode well for a Buccos lineup that's 28th in wRC+ (84) against righties this season.

Considering the Padres have sixth-best reliever SIERA (3.52) and recently added veteran bullpen arms Tanner Scott and Jason Adam, life won't get any easier for Pittsburgh even after King departs.

On the flip side, Pirates starter Marco Gonzales (1-1, 3.72 ERA) is the kind of soft-tossing lefty the Padres can take advantage of. Gonzales' ERA indicators (6.14 xERA; 4.64 xFIP; 4.84 SIERA) are truly dreadful, and his 1.52 WHIP could lead to plenty of base runners for a San Diego side that's third in wRC+ (117) against righties.

Winners of eight of their last 10 games and with an advantage on the bump, look for the Padres to cover as 1.5-run favorites in Pittsburgh tonight.

Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins

Over 8.5 (-108)

A suspect pitching duel in tonight's Cincinnati Reds-Miami Marlins clash could lead to an abundance of offense at loanDepot park.

That duel pits southpaw Andrew Abbott (3.41 ERA) against rookie right-hander Valente Bellozo (4.20 ERA).

Abbott's results haven't been bad, but his profile doesn't support his status as an above-average arm. The 25-year-old doesn't throw particularly hard (31st percentile average fastball velo), doesn't prevent barrels (23rd percentile barrel rate allowed), and doesn't induce many ground balls (seventh percentile ground-ball rate). That's reflected in his less-than-stellar 4.87 SIERA.

We don't have as large of a sample to judge Bellozo from, but the early results haven't been great. While he's pitched to a 3.76 SIERA across three starts, he has yielded a sky-high fly-ball rate (52.5%). He, too, doesn't throw very hard (eighth percentile average fastball velo), and that's led to an abysmal 47.5% hard-hit rate allowed.

I'm willing to bet against soft-tossing, fly-ball heavy arms, and we can do that tonight by taking over 8.5 runs.

Neither Cincinnati nor Miami boast especially prolific offenses, but the Reds scored 18 runs across the first two games of this series to cash consecutive overs.

And though this isn't a great split for either side -- Cincy is 23rd in wRC+ (93) vs. RHP and Miami is last in wRC+ (73) vs. LHP) -- they won't be dealing with ace-level pitching.

I'd be willing to narrow this down to the Reds Over 4.5 Runs (+100), but Abbott's profile is enough for me to back over on the game total at -108 odds.

New York Mets at Colorado Rockies

Mets Over 5.5 Total Runs (-136)

The New York Mets' offense forgot to board their flight to Denver in yesterday's series-opener as they managed just three runs against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.

But they still pieced together nine hits and 11 total base runners, so I'm willing to trust the league's third-highest scoring offense since June 1st to get back on track and go over 5.5 runs tonight.

New York has the luxury of facing Ryan Feltner (1-10, 4.97 ERA) at the top venue for hitters, per Statcast Park Factors.

Feltner's ERA speaks for itself, but he's been dramatically worse at home this season. At Coors, the righty has a mind-boggling 6.14 ERA to go along with a 1.55 WHIP and .362 wOBA allowed. He's also given up 1.49 HR/9 at home -- a mark that would rank eighth-highest in all of baseball.

The Mets, meanwhile, have more than held their own against righties over the last two months. Since June 1st, New York ranks sixth in wRC+ (121) and wOBA (.335) versus this split.

numberFire's MLB projections peg the Mets for 6.6 runs tonight, aiding my case for New York to go over their 5.5-run team total.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.