3 MLB Best Bets for Monday 6/17/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Monday 6/17/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 Runs (-122)

The Boston Red Sox (37-35) will move from one division rival to another. After taking two of three games from New York over the weekend, Boston is now facing a series at the Toronto Blue Jays (35-36).

The Sox and Jays are currently wedged in third and fourth place of a hyper-talented AL East. With both clubs hovering around .500 right now, I feel most confident by attacking the total here; let's target over 7.5 runs (-122 odds) in Canada, eh?

When looking at all of FanDuel's MLB totals for Monday, 7.5 runs is tied for the lowest number on the board. That's interesting since the Red Sox boast a prolific offense, yielding the fifth-best team OPS (.736) in baseball. Additionally, Rogers Center is a known hitter's venue, carrying a 103 Park Factor score when it comes to home runs.

The projected starters for Monday's bid in Toronto are Nick Pivetta and lefty Yusei Kikuchi. Pivetta has been solid for Boston in 2024, posting a 3.86 FIP. Meanwhile, Kikuchi has also fared well behind a 3.58 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).

The BoSox have scored 4.61 runs per game this season. Still, they've been even better as of late, plating 7.0 runs per game since June 12th. In this matchup, I think both sides can combine for at least eight total runs inside a hitter's park.

San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 p.m. ET

Under 10.5 Runs (-118)

For a meeting of a couple classic National League franchises, the San Francisco Giants (35-37) are in the Midway for a clash with the Chicago Cubs (34-38). As a fair warning, "The Windy City" is quite warm and gusty this week.

Monday's probable pitchers at Wrigley Field are fellow righties Jordan Hicks and Javier Assad. Transparently, both hurlers have enjoyed success in 2024. Hicks has compiled a sharp 3.86 SIERA while Assad is operating with a 1.24 WHIP.

I respect Chicago's offensive-friendly conditions this week, but given the arms featured here, I think there is a quality opportunity for under 10.5 runs (-118 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook) to prevail.

In the current campaign, both ball clubs here have been struggling in the batter's box. The Giants (.703 OPS) rank 22nd in MLB with a .137 ISO. For the Cubbies (.673 OPS), they are only marginally better, sporting a .138 ISO.

If I get burned here on a windy day at Wrigley, so be it. But for me, it is tough to imagine San Francisco and Chicago combining for 11 or more runs on Monday.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Dodgers (44-29) will stay within the division to start the week, heading out to Denver to take on the last-place Colorado Rockies (25-46). Of course, the Dodgers are traveling to the Mile High with some bad news.

As it is now, Mookie Betts (hand) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (shoulder) are both headed to the IL. Still, I think Los Angeles has more than enough firepower to cover the run line at Coors Field this evening.

Headed to the most explosive venue in MLB, Dodgers -1.5 is currently labeled with standard odds (-110). Considering that the Rockies (-2.03 nERD) are positioned dead last on numberFire's power rankings while the Dodgers (2.02 nERD) show up second overall, I believe Los Angeles has a strong opportunity to win by two or more runs on Monday.

On the mound, we'll see Cal Quantrill (4.65 SIERA) and southpaw James Paxton (3.92 ERA). The Dodgers have already roughed up Quantrill once this month (Jun. 1), logging nine hits and four earned runs on the righty at Dodger Stadium. Simply, I don't think it goes any better for Quantrill against mighty Los Angeles at Coors Field.

Over three head-to-head meetings this season, the "Boys in Blue" have covered the run lines twice against the Rox. From there, the Dodgers boast a 1.4 MOV through 73 contests, which is the third-best mark in MLB. Give me the Dodgers by two or more runs tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.